Abstract ▼

Background of Research
Recently the price of processed food is highly increasing due to rapid increase in international price of grains which become raw materials. The purpose of this research is to identify the actual state and characteristics of the changes in processed food price which takes u

Background of Research
Recently the price of processed food is highly increasing due to rapid increase in international price of grains which become raw materials. The purpose of this research is to identify the actual state and characteristics of the changes in processed food price which takes up a large proportion in consumer expenditures and to analyze the factors which affect food prices. In the research, we identified the characteristics of changes in processed food price in the phase of price increase and the difference from past trend so that we can identify what are needed the most to control processed food prices. Based on the result of the analysis, we tried to identify the countermeasures for the control of processed food prices.
Method of Research
In order to analyze the factors of change in processed food prices, the time-series analysis method was applied. The characteristics of price changes were analyzed using the GARCH model which is a time-series analysis model. Through conditional heteroscedasticity estimation, we tried to analyze whether the size of heteroscedasticity has been increasing as time passed. In order to differentiate from other preceding researches, casual relationships between food prices and macro-variables were verified and an impact reaction analysis was conducted using a vector error correction model. An input-output analysis was carried out to identify to what extent the changes in raw material prices including international grain prices affect domestic processed food prices.
Research Results and Implications
Processed food prices show that not only they have been on an increasing trend over the analysis period but the range of temporary move off the trend line also has increased. Changes in processed food prices were not temporarily changed due to recent changes in international raw material prices but they have increased continuously following the trend line showing a bigger range of price changes in recent days.
Even in consumers' household expenditures, the proportion of processed foods in the consumption expenditure has been continuously increasing even though their share is relatively low. Especially the lower the consumers' income level, the higher is the proportion of food consumption expenditure vs. income. And the proportion of consumption expenditure for processed foods in low income households was indicated to be relatively higher. Accordingly, stabilizing the price of processed foods to mitigate consumers' burden is an important policy task.
As the proportion of raw material cost is high in the cost structure of processed foods, the biggest factor that affects the change in processed food prices is the change in the world market price of grains and other field crops. The next factor is the producer price level which exerts a significant influence on the production cost. Accordingly, purchasing and importing world market grains at stabilized price is an important task as the price affects the cost of processed foods. And the result of analysis showed that price change of processed food on the change in raw material prices was lower than the rate of change in world market price of grains.
Although processed food prices are significantly affected by raw material prices, the influence of macro-economic variables such as foreign exchange rate, money supply, and interest rate did not appear in the short term (several months span) but did so in the medium term (approximately 1 year span). The influence of foreign exchange rate and interest rate appeared to be significant among the macro-economic variables. Especially the change in foreign exchange rate is a very important factor. The domestic currency import price index of raw materials was compared with the foreign currency import price index, and it showed that the domestic currency import price index is higher.
In the analysis of asymmetric price adjustment of processed food in relation to raw material import price, the impact on the price was different in the price increasing period and the price decreasing period. In the rising period of international grain price, the change in processed food price appeared to be bigger whereas it was smaller in the decreasing period. This means that the control to minimize the influence during the increasing period of international grain price is relatively more important.
As the market structure of primary processed foods such as flour, starch and edible oil is an oligopoly, where only a few enterprises are engaged in the production because of mechanization, distribution margin rate was higher in the price rising period. It is necessary to further expand the market structure of the raw materials to a more competitive system. One method to achieve this is to directly import intermediary raw materials in the form of finished goods. It is also necessary to develop and enhance the competitiveness of processed consumption foods that use domestic raw agricultural materials. In order to enhance the competitiveness of traditional processed foods which use domestic raw materials, an efficient supply system should be prepared for domestic raw agricultural products.

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1
• 머리말 ... 3
• 요약 ... 5
• ABSTRACT ... 9
• 차례 ... 13
• 표차례 ... 15
• 그림차례 ... 18
• 제1장 서 론 ... 21
• 1. 연구배경 및 목적 ... 21
• 2. 연구범위 및 연구방법 ... 24
• 제2장 소비자 가계소비지출 실태 ... 29
• 1. 가계소비지출 실태 ... 29
• 2. 식품소비지출 구조 ... 34
• 3. 물가변동과 주요품목별 식품소비지출 변화 ... 44
• 제3장 가공식품 물가변동 실태분석 ... 55
• 1. 가공식품 물가변동 추이 ... 55
• 2. 가공식품 가격지수 변동성 분석 ... 58
• 3. 가공식품 원재료 구성 및 수입비중 ... 61
• 제4장 가공식품 물가변동 요인분석 ... 69
• 1. 식품물가에 대한 거시경제변수 영향분석 ... 69
• 2. 식품물가에 대한 원재료가격의 영향분석 ... 80
• 3. 원재료 가격의 식품물가에 대한 가격전이 비대칭성 분석 ... 84
• 4. 산업연관분석에 의한 수입원자재가격의 영향 분석 ... 87
• 제5장 가공식품 중간 원재료산업 구조분석 ... 91
• 1. 식용유 산업 ... 91
• 2. 밀가루 ... 100
• 3. 설탕 ... 105
• 4. 전분 ... 110
• 제6장 가공식품 물가변동 대응방안 ... 113
• 1. 가공식품 가격안정 기본방향 ... 113
• 2. 가공식품 물가안정 과제 ... 118
• 부록: 분석모형 설명 ... 127
• 참고 문헌 ... 137
• 끝페이지 ... 138