초록 ▼

3. 연구결과 및 정책제언
남한이 북한에서 광물자원 투자협력을 추진하는 데는 많은 장벽이 존재하고 있다. 그 중에서도 본 연구에서는 북한의 전력문제 등 열악한 인프라가 남북 자원협력을 실행시키는 데 많은 과제를 던져주고 있음을 파악하였다.
대부분의 광물자원 사업들은 거액의 투자비가 초기부터 투입되어야 하는 특성이 있다. 그래서 북한 광산개발 투자는 우선 소규모 광산을 투자해 다양한 리스크들을 탐색한 후 투자를 확대하는 점진적 투자 방안이 합리적인 것으로 평가되어 왔다. 그러나 북한의 열악한 전력문제나 인프라 장벽들로 이러

3. 연구결과 및 정책제언
남한이 북한에서 광물자원 투자협력을 추진하는 데는 많은 장벽이 존재하고 있다. 그 중에서도 본 연구에서는 북한의 전력문제 등 열악한 인프라가 남북 자원협력을 실행시키는 데 많은 과제를 던져주고 있음을 파악하였다.
대부분의 광물자원 사업들은 거액의 투자비가 초기부터 투입되어야 하는 특성이 있다. 그래서 북한 광산개발 투자는 우선 소규모 광산을 투자해 다양한 리스크들을 탐색한 후 투자를 확대하는 점진적 투자 방안이 합리적인 것으로 평가되어 왔다. 그러나 북한의 열악한 전력문제나 인프라 장벽들로 이러한 점진적인 진출방안들에 대한 실효성이 의문시된다. 북한에서 소규모로 광산을 투자한다 해도 전력공급의 안정을 기하기 어렵기 때문이다. 이러한 관점에서 볼 때 북한 광물자원 분야의 투자는 인프라 문제, 특히 전력공급의 안정성에 대한 다각적인을 대안을 마련한 후에 추진해야 하는 것이다. 그러나 인프라 장벽을
해소하려면 대규모의 투자가 선행되어야하기 때문에 북한 당국이 투자 안전을 보장해 줄 수 있는 방안들을 제시하지 않는다면 실행에 옮기기 어려운 과제이이다. 그렇기 때문에 남북 광물자원의 협력과 투자를 확대하기 위해서는 남북 당국간에 투자안정 제도를 마련하기 위한 협상들이 우선 추진되어야 한다. 이는 현재 북한의 정치·제도적 관행을 깨는 법이나 제도까지도 요구될 수 있기 때문에 매우 어려운 협상 과정이 예고된다.
지금까지 본 연구에서 살펴본 바와 같이 남과 북의 광물자원 개발 협력에는 정치적인 갈등들이 해소된 다 해도 예상하기 어려운 여러 문제들이 내재되어 있다. 이 모든 사항을 본 연구에서 모두 담기는 어려운 과제이므로 향후 지속적인 연구를 통해 북한과 공조할 수 있는 다양한 방안들을 모색하여야 할 것이다. 동시에 우리의 제안을 북한측이 수용할 수 있는 다각적인 유인 방법에 대한 연구도 계속되어야 할 것이다.

Abstract ▼

1. Research Purpose
The situations of mineral deposits between South and North Korea are significantly different, though land size of the Korean peninsula is small. North Korea hosts rich mineral resources, on the other hand, South Korea depends its almost demand of minerals on import. A few of c

1. Research Purpose
The situations of mineral deposits between South and North Korea are significantly different, though land size of the Korean peninsula is small. North Korea hosts rich mineral resources, on the other hand, South Korea depends its almost demand of minerals on import. A few of companies from South Korea had participated in some mining projects in North Korea. It has been, however, stopped since May 24th, 2010.
Nevertheless, the inter-Korean mining cooperation is expected to have a substantial economic benefit more than just trade of minerals. Therefore, South Korea has to prepare for inter-Korean economic cooperation in various ways. The investments of the South on the mining projects in North Korea would have a significant potential to benefit for both side. North Korea could develop mining industry and this promotes its economic growth. South Korea will secures mineral commodities as well as return benefits from mining investments. Because of this potential, two Korea should develop the resource cooperation as a strategical cooperation area.
Even if political relationship between South and North Korea improves, many other difficulties in investment to mining industry of the North are anticipated. The purpose of this study is to analysis the obstacles and risk factors on investments to the mining industry of North Korea. It also suggests the strategies and countermeasures when South Korea invests in developments of mineral resources in North Korea.

2. Summary
North Korea has reserves of 220 mineral resources type and 20 types of those resources are identified to be economically feasible. Compared to South Korea, North Korea has abundant reserves on iron ore, cooper ore, and zinc ore which prices are higher than those of other minerals like non metallic minerals in the market. Despite the rich reserves of mineral resources, mining outputs in the North were decreased by 20%-60% compared to early 1990s. However, the export volume of mineral resources has expanded two times since 2010. In 2013, it was recorded 630million dollars which accounted for 22% of total exports in North Korea (except coal).
Despite the increase in exports, China’s mining investment to the projects in North Korea is inactive condition. It is estimated that China companies are investing in about 10 mining operation in North Korea and there might not be new investments after 2010.
Recently, transportation infrastructure such as railroad, road, and port around the Tumen River has been significantly improved under the economic development plan of Changchun-Jilin-Tumen area. Furthermore, if power infrastructure improves through active economic trades in the border places between North Korea and China, China would increase more investments to the resource developments in North Korea, specially the promising mining areas like Musan and Dancheon which are located in the north-eastern region of North Korea.
High risks are inherent in resource investments and trades between two Koreas, depending on the political situation. However, the wide differences in the reserves of mineral resources and economic development stages between two Koreas could paradoxically provide the economic benefits to both North and South Korea through the inter-Korean mining cooperation. First, South Korea can save a transportation cost and improve the stability of raw material supply through mining investment projects in North Korea. Second, South Korea could regain its competitiveness of downstream industries of non-metallic resources (cement and ceramic industry etc.) by relocating its factories to North Korea. Third, the South also could secure the sites for steel and smelting factories in the areas where have abundant raw materials in the North.
These South Korea’s benefits also contribute on North Korea's economic growth. In North Korea, the mining business is most significant industry, accounting for about 13.4 % of GDP. It is the most important foreign exchange source as well. Therefore, the South's investments to mining industry in the North will greatly contribute to economic growth of the North.
Two Korea's mining cooperation has valuable point on that it makes the North to prompt its economic growth not by aid of the South but by investment.
However, even if the political situation between two Koreas become relatively stable, there would still be lots of obstacles in investments to mining projects in the North. This study focuses on identifying the problems in making revenues in the mining projects under the poor infrastructures in North Korea. For this purpose, economic analysis are conducted on the projects of iron-ore mine in Musan and Geomdeock zinc-ore mine, magnesite mine and their smelting facilities in Dancheon. The cost data are secured from the foreign country's mining projects and the feasibility study on the mining projects of Dancheon being conducted by the South' companies after visiting there in the year 2007. The rates of return(IRR) for the investment projects are calculated by a DCF method. When we estimate the IRR for each projects without investment to infrastructure(electricity, railroad, port), it is over 50% for iron mining project and 24% for zinc and copper mining projects. But, IRR of magnesite mining projects is just 5.3%. With investments in the infrastructure, IRR for iron mining project drop to 20% and zinc mining project, 16.6%. IRR for the copper and magnesite mining project show negative return. all of the returns for investments to the smelting facilities show lower IRR if we include the costs for infrastructure investments and, magnesite smelting industry shows negative return.
Though the data may not reflect the exact values, the IRR analysis imply that the investments to North Korean mining with infrastructure do not guarantee the economic feasibility. Thus it requires multi-directional approach for mining development investment to solve poor infrastructure in North Korea. The most challenging part among infrastructures is poor facilities in the power. This study analyzed the ways to secure stable electricity supply by retrofitting the power plants located in around developing mines. Results of the study reveal that retrofitting the power plants for mining investment would be difficult task because of following situations. First, almost of the promising mines in North Korea are located nearby hydroelectric power plant so it cannot guarantee stable supply due to the features of hydropower such as volatility by rainfall and weather change. Second, it could be hard to find the generation facilities of proper capacity which mine development requires nearby the power plants in the investment regions. Especially, power renovation costs are expected too high compared to investment cost for mine development because electricity demand of mines are not relatively large. Third, it could be difficult task for the electricity agency of North Korea to rent the generation facilities for retrofitting to the mining investors because North Korea is already facing a severe power shortage through the nation.
Also, there is ambiguous investment law and institutions problem in North Korea. This study reviews main laws that significantly affect to the mining investment like law for mineral resources development in North Korea. The results indicate that the stability of investment would not be guaranteed under the current North Korea law system. In order to solve this problem, it requires special laws or laws for exclusive industrial zone such as Kaesong Industrial district which will not be affected from North Korean laws. Additionally, South Korea may prefer to invest currently operation mine, rather than new mine. In this case, it is necessary to separate management structure of investing company from an existing organization of North Korea, which is fundamentally difficult things in North Korea. This study suggests that South Korea controls only the core management elements and tightens up the monitoring. The core business areas: ① the purchase and distribution of imported materials and equipment. ② import and export business of products to South Korea. ③ accounting. These three business segments should be managed by South Korean investors.

3. Policy Suggestions
There exists many obstacles to promote the inter-Korean mining cooperation project. Above all, this study identifies that poor infrastructure such as lack of electricity put the inter-Korean resource cooperation uncounted problems. In order to solving poor power facilities, it must start with a large investment from the beginning stage. It seems a serious challenge if North Korea does not suggest the way to reduce political and institutional investment risk. Therefore, several measures and agreements have to be preceded for a stable investment. This will require very tough negotiations with North Korean government because it might ask hard decision for North Korean government to change its law or political system.
There are various underlying problems about inter-Korean mining cooperation projects. Every aspect cannot be handled in this study. A variety of ways to compromise with North Korea for mutual benefits should to be reviewed through further study.