보고서 정보
주관연구기관 |
한국농촌경제연구원 Korea Rural Economic Institute |
보고서유형 | 최종보고서 |
발행국가 | 대한민국 |
언어 |
한국어
|
발행년월 | 2014-12 |
과제시작연도 |
2014 |
주관부처 |
국무조정실 The Office for Government Policy Coordination |
등록번호 |
TRKO201500001712 |
과제고유번호 |
1105008629 |
사업명 |
한국농촌경제연구원 |
DB 구축일자 |
2015-05-16
|
DOI |
https://doi.org/10.23000/TRKO201500001712 |
초록
▼
1990년대 과일 시장의 개방과 2000년대 FTA 체결국가가 칠레, 미국 등으로 확대됨에 따라 과일 수입이 빠르게 증가하고 있다. 국내 시장에 수입과일의 비중이 크게 증대되면서 수입 과일로 인한 국내 과일에 대한 영향과 피해 대책에 대한 논란이 이어지고 있다. 이 연구는 국내산 과일 소비가 수입 과일에 의해 받은 영향을 품목이나 계절에 따라 구체적으로 분석하고 소비자의 과일 선호도와 구입행태를 분석함으로써, 과일 소비변화에 대한 생산자와 정책 대응을 위한 시사점을 제시하기 위해 수행되었다.
국내산 과일ㆍ과채와 수입 과일 간
1990년대 과일 시장의 개방과 2000년대 FTA 체결국가가 칠레, 미국 등으로 확대됨에 따라 과일 수입이 빠르게 증가하고 있다. 국내 시장에 수입과일의 비중이 크게 증대되면서 수입 과일로 인한 국내 과일에 대한 영향과 피해 대책에 대한 논란이 이어지고 있다. 이 연구는 국내산 과일 소비가 수입 과일에 의해 받은 영향을 품목이나 계절에 따라 구체적으로 분석하고 소비자의 과일 선호도와 구입행태를 분석함으로써, 과일 소비변화에 대한 생산자와 정책 대응을 위한 시사점을 제시하기 위해 수행되었다.
국내산 과일ㆍ과채와 수입 과일 간 소비경합구조를 분석하기 위해 준이상 역수요체계(Inverse Almost Ideal Demand System: IAIDS) 모형에 의해 계절별로 가격신축성, 교차신축성, 규모신축성 계수들을 추정하였다. 소비자의 과일 종류별 선호도와 선호이유를 파악하기 위해 전국의 성인 1,700명과 청소년 300명에 대해 웹기반 및 전화에 의한 설문조사를 실시하였다. 수입 과일의 취급규모와 해외직접조달 비중, 품목별 당도 관리 기준 등을 파악하기 위해 수입ㆍ유통업체 담당자에 대한 면접 조사를 실시했다.
계절별로 주요 국내산 과일과 수입 과일 간 대체관계를 추정한 결과, 바나나, 오렌지, 수입 포도, 체리 등 주요 수입 과일의 물량이 10% 증가할 때 국내산 다소비 과일 품목의 가격을 각 0.5∼1.0% 하락(즉, 소비를 감소)시키는 것으로 나타났다. 수입 포도와 체리는 봄과 여름에 수박, 참외, 포도의 소비를 대체하며, 바나나와 오렌지는 배, 단감, 사과, 감귤 등의 소비를 대체하는 것으로 추정된다.
국내산 과일의 소비 비중은 자체 가격의 상승과 수입 과일 가격의 하락으로 소비가 대체되어 연 0.52% 감소하였고 인구사회적 요인 때문에 연 0.68% 감소한 것으로 추정된다. 한편 수입 과일의 소비 비중은 인구사회적 요인 때문에 연 3.38% 증가한 것으로 추정된다. 인구사회적 요인 중 인구증가와 노령화가 과일 소비 지출에 긍정적 영향을 미친 반면, 가구당 가구원수의 감소는 과일 소비 지출에 부정적 영향을 미친 것으로 추정된다.
소비자 조사 결과, 소비자의 과일에 대한 선호도는 맛(47.0%) 외에 건강 기능성(22.9%), 색ㆍ향ㆍ모양 등의 품질(15.2%), 취급ㆍ섭취의 간편성(13.9%)등에 의해 결정되는 것으로 나타났다. 연령이 많을수록 건강기능성을 중시하는 반면, 저연령계층과 청소년은 맛 외에 품질과 간편성을 중시하는 경향이 있다. 선호하는 맛 종류는 달콤한 맛이 35.3%로 가장 높고, 새콤달콤, 즙이 많고 시원함, 과육의 육질(느낌) 등이 각각 20% 내외로 나타났다. 국내산 과일과 수입 과일에 대한 상대적 선호도는 국내산 과일이 시원한 맛, 수입 과일은 새콤달콤하거나 새콤한 맛에서 높았다.
수입 과일을 국내산 과일보다 선호한다는 응답은 전체의 26.3%로 집계되었으며, 여성, 30대 이하 저연령층, 1인 가구에서 높게 나타났다. 수입과일은 당도가 높으면서 새콤한 맛이 가미되며 과육이 부드러워 선호되는 경향이 있다.
2014∼2020년간 인구가 소폭 증가하고 50대 이상의 인구 비중이 증가하여 과일 소비지출은 연 0.41%로 이전보다 증가세가 둔화될 것으로 전망된다. 과일 소비는 향후 맛 주도, 다양화, 수입 과일 비중 증가 경향이 뚜렷해질 전망이다. 특히 대형유통체인의 확장, 해외여행 등에 의한 외국 식문화 경험의 확대, 가속적으로 확대되는 FTA와 식품검역협상 단계적 추진 등으로 인해 국내 시장에서 수입 과일의 비중은 더욱 증가할 것으로 예상된다.
국내산 과일 생산자는 품목ㆍ품종은 당도가 일정 수준 이상이면서, 열매는 중소과이거나 껍질의 섭취ㆍ제거가 쉬우며, 과육이 부드럽고 건강기능성이 알져진 것을 선택해야 한다. 최근 소비가 감소하는 다소비 국내산 과일ㆍ과채 품목의 소비를 유지하기 위해서는 일정한 품질 수준이 유지될 수 있도록 생산ㆍ출하의 계획적 관리가 요구되고 유통업체와의 일관적 유통ㆍ물류가 가능해져야 한다. 과일 소비 촉진을 위해서는 여성과 청소년을 대상으로 전략적인 홍보 체계가 갖추어져야 한다. 수입 과일과의 대체 관계를 고려하여 생산ㆍ출하가 조절되어야 한다.
국내산 과일에 대한 수입 과일의 영향이 다양하고 복합적이므로 이를 반영하여 FTA로 인한 피해를 계측하고 협상 대책 및 피해보상 방안이 강구되어야 한다.
Abstract
▼
Research Results and Implications
Upon estimating the demand system among seasonal Korean fruit and vegetable items with that of imported fruit items, it was found that there was a significant substitution relationship between bananas and watermelons, between oranges and tangerines/oriental melon
Research Results and Implications
Upon estimating the demand system among seasonal Korean fruit and vegetable items with that of imported fruit items, it was found that there was a significant substitution relationship between bananas and watermelons, between oranges and tangerines/oriental melons, and between imported grapes and oriental melons in the spring; between bananas and grapes, between cherries and grapes/oriental melons in the summer; between bananas and apples, between orange and tangerines, and between imported grapes and pears/apples in the fall; and between bananas/oranges and pears/persimmons in the winter. The change factor of domestic fruit and imported fruit consumption was analyzed to be a demographical factor. Of the demographic factors, increase of population and aging had a positive effect on consumption expenditures of fruits, while drop in the number of household family members had negative effects on fruit consumption expenditures.
Upon examining individual consumers, answers that showed preference were in the order of apples, peaches, tangerines, grapes, strawberries, watermelons and tomatoes for mainly consumed items, and bitter persimmons (soft persimmons), melons, pineapples, cherries, plums, blueberries and mangos for other items. Youths preferred softer fruits such as peaches, tangerines, strawberries, oranges, melons and pineapples compared to adults. Of the domestic fruits and vegetables or imported fruits, 26.3% answered that they preferred imported fruits. Preference for imported fruits according to adult features was in the order of women, younger age groups, and one-person households.
For reasons on selection of preferred fruits, 47.0% answered taste, followed by 22.9% who answered health functions, 15.2% said quality, and 13.9% said convenience to handle and consume. The older the age, the more importance was placed on health functions, while the younger adults and youths tended to place importance on quality and convenience, aside from taste. For preferred type of taste, 35.3% said sweet taste, while approximate 20% answered sour, juicy and fresh, and full of fruit, each. For preference on tangerine and grape types, higher income levels showed high levels for more expensive tangerine varieties and imported grapes. The market value per feature of apple had maximum-minimum differences according to fruit size, variety, and packaging units at 126.7%, 63.4% and 48.2%, respectively compared to the average. The premium level for larger varieties dropped compared to in the past.
As economic growth rates drop in the future, it is expected that increase in fruit consumption expenditures according to increased income will also drop. While the gap is small between 2013 and 2020, it is expected that fruit consumption expenditures will increase by 0.41% every year, as the population grows and the proportion of the elderly increases. However, it is forecasted that due to expansion of large distribution chains, increased experience of foreign food culture through overseas travels, and increased FTAs and the gradual progression of food quarantine negotiations, the ratio of imported fruits will grow further in the domestic fruit market.
When domestic fruit producers select fruit, they should consider the followings: (1) it has a certain level of sweetness or higher when they develop and introduce its items and varieties, (2) it is small- to medium-sized fruit, (3) its peel is easy to remove, (4) its flesh is soft, and (5) it has well known health functions. In order to maintain consumption of Korean fruits and vegetables commonly consumed, unilateral distribution/logistics with distributors must be available, and in response to nuclear families such as increased one-person households, distribution channels should be developed and products should be commercialized in ways such as small-unit packaging or pre-cut fruits. Furthermore, strategic promotion systems should be established targeting women and youths in order to promote fruit consumption.
Research Results and Implications
Upon estimating the demand system among seasonal Korean fruit and vegetable items with that of imported fruit items, it was found that there was a significant substitution relationship between bananas and watermelons, between oranges and tangerines/oriental melons, and between imported grapes and oriental melons in the spring; between bananas and grapes, between cherries and grapes/oriental melons in the summer; between bananas and apples, between orange and tangerines, and between imported grapes and pears/apples in the fall; and between bananas/oranges and pears/persimmons in the winter. The change factor of domestic fruit and imported fruit consumption was analyzed to be a demographical factor. Of the demographic factors, increase of population and aging had a positive effect on consumption expenditures of fruits, while drop in the number of household family members had negative effects on fruit consumption expenditures.
Upon examining individual consumers, answers that showed preference were in the order of apples, peaches, tangerines, grapes, strawberries, watermelons and tomatoes for mainly consumed items, and bitter persimmons (soft persimmons), melons, pineapples, cherries, plums, blueberries and mangos for other items. Youths preferred softer fruits such as peaches, tangerines, strawberries, oranges, melons and pineapples compared to adults. Of the domestic fruits and vegetables or imported fruits, 26.3% answered that they preferred imported fruits. Preference for imported fruits according to adult features was in the order of women, younger age groups, and one-person households.
For reasons on selection of preferred fruits, 47.0% answered taste, followed by 22.9% who answered health functions, 15.2% said quality, and 13.9% said convenience to handle and consume. The older the age, the more importance was placed on health functions, while the younger adults and youths tended to place importance on quality and convenience, aside from taste. For preferred type of taste, 35.3% said sweet taste, while approximate 20% answered sour, juicy and fresh, and full of fruit, each. For preference on tangerine and grape types, higher income levels showed high levels for more expensive tangerine varieties and imported grapes. The market value per feature of apple had maximum-minimum differences according to fruit size, variety, and packaging units at 126.7%, 63.4% and 48.2%, respectively compared to the average. The premium level for larger varieties dropped compared to in the past.
As economic growth rates drop in the future, it is expected that increase in fruit consumption expenditures according to increased income will also drop. While the gap is small between 2013 and 2020, it is expected that fruit consumption expenditures will increase by 0.41% every year, as the population grows and the proportion of the elderly increases. However, it is forecasted that due to expansion of large distribution chains, increased experience of foreign food culture through overseas travels, and increased FTAs and the gradual progression of food quarantine negotiations, the ratio of imported fruits will grow further in the domestic fruit market.
When domestic fruit producers select fruit, they should consider the followings: (1) it has a certain level of sweetness or higher when they develop and introduce its items and varieties, (2) it is small- to medium-sized fruit, (3) its peel is easy to remove, (4) its flesh is soft, and (5) it has well known health functions. In order to maintain consumption of Korean fruits and vegetables commonly consumed, unilateral distribution/logistics with distributors must be available, and in response to nuclear families such as increased one-person households, distribution channels should be developed and products should be commercialized in ways such as small-unit packaging or pre-cut fruits. Furthermore, strategic promotion systems should be established targeting women and youths in order to promote fruit consumption.
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