초록 ▼

IV. 연구 내용 및 결과
○ 2012년에 도입된 모바일 기상관측차량의 내부구조를 현장관측에 적합하게 개선하였으며, 실시간 자료 표출을 위한 LED 전광판을 설치하였다. 정확한 관측자료표출을 위해 강원지방기상청 AWS와 비교분석을 실시하였으며, 신뢰성있는 관측자료를 제공하기 위하여 품질관리 프로그램을 작성하여 품질관리된 자료를 실시간으로 표출하였다. 모바일 기상관측차량은 동해안을 따라 상시 주행관측을 수행하였으며, 집중관측, 공동관측, 관측지원, 시험관측 등 목적에 따라 지상 및 고층관측을 하였다. 또한 기상의날 기상관측차량

IV. 연구 내용 및 결과
○ 2012년에 도입된 모바일 기상관측차량의 내부구조를 현장관측에 적합하게 개선하였으며, 실시간 자료 표출을 위한 LED 전광판을 설치하였다. 정확한 관측자료표출을 위해 강원지방기상청 AWS와 비교분석을 실시하였으며, 신뢰성있는 관측자료를 제공하기 위하여 품질관리 프로그램을 작성하여 품질관리된 자료를 실시간으로 표출하였다. 모바일 기상관측차량은 동해안을 따라 상시 주행관측을 수행하였으며, 집중관측, 공동관측, 관측지원, 시험관측 등 목적에 따라 지상 및 고층관측을 하였다. 또한 기상의날 기상관측차량 체험 행사에 참가하였으며, 국가적인 행사인2014년 인천아시아경기대회, 장애인아시아경기대회 95회 전국체육대회의 기상관측지원을 하였다.
기상학적으로 활용가능한 수준의 가강수량 산출을 위한 최소 GPS 관측시간 결정을 위해 각기 다른 관측 세션의 지속시간에 따라 지상 GPS 신호로부터 산출된 가강수량의 민감도 실험 연구를 수행하였다. 관측 지속시간이 증가함에 따라 가강수량 산출 오차가 감소하는 특징을 보였으며, 가강수량 산출을 위해 필요한 최소 고정관측 시간은 4시간 이상이 필요함을 확인하였다. 이동기간 가강수량 검증을 위해 동해안 인근의 상시 고정관측소에서 산출(Bernese 5.0 활용)된 가강수량 결과와 비교·검증하였으며, 위성 Geometry 특성 또는 수렴 시간의 영향 관점에서 오차요인을 분석하였다. 고정관측소와 비교하여 RMSE(8.7 mm) 수치가 유의하지 못하였으나, 주행중 관측된 자료임을 고려할 때 시·공간적 고해상도의 정보로써 활용가치가 높을것으로 판단된다.
재해기상연구센터에서는 수치예보모델 내 구름물리과정 개선을 통한 재해기상예보 정확도 향상을 목적으로 기상라이다차량시스템을 도입하여 시험운영 중에 있다. 차량은 목표지점으로 즉시 출동하여 관측을 실시할 수 있으며 구름미세물리 연구를 위하여 다파장 라이다 시스템이 장착되어 있다. 이로 구름입자의 상대적인 크기 및 형상의 관측이 가능하다. 또한 시정, 대기 가강수량, 수적의 크기 및 낙하속1982-2012년(31y)동안 기상관측 자료와 소방방재청의 재해연보를 기준으로 인명피해, 재산피해를 포함한 40여 가지의 피해유형을 DB로 구축하였다. 구축된 재해피해 자료와 기상자료를 기반으로 지역별 호우, 대설, 강풍 재해의 총 피해액, 사례당 평균피해액 등 피해액 기반의 분석과 재해 기간의 총 강수량, 사례 당 평균 강수량 등의 기상규모 기반의 분석을 수행하였으며, 기상 현상에 따른 재해 피해 규모를 분석하여 기상강도 개념의 지역의 재해 취약성을 분석할 수 있었다.
다양한 분석을 통해 분석된 지역별 취약특성은 인접한 지역에서 유사한 피해특성을 보이거나, 도시의 규모나 환경에 따라 유사한 유형의 피해특성이 나타났다. 이러한 원인을 찾기 위해 군집분석을 통한 지역별 재해취약성 유형 분석을 수행하였다. 지역별 재해취약성 유형분석은 최소 2가지 인자를 4가지유형으로 분석하는 방법에서 이후 여러 가지 변수를 사용하여 6가지 유형으로 분석하는 방법으로 확대하였다. 유형분석은 사용된 인자와 유형의 개수에 따라 그 특성을 분석하였다. 하지만 재해 기간의 선행 강수에 의한 재해 영향 등을 고려한 연구가 향후 수행되어야 할것이다.
본 연구에서는 재해기상에 직접적으로 노출되는 다양한 공간정보를 사용자가 쉽게 이용할 수 있도록 제공할 수 있는 방안을 연구하였다. 또한 공간정보를 표출하여 사용자가 쉽게 인지할 수 있도록 지리정보표출시스템을 구상하였다. 공간정보를 제공하는 것은 각 행정구역의 특성을 파악하는데 중요한 역할을 한다. 본 연구에서는 통계 형식, 벡터 형식, 래스터 형식의 공간정보 자료를 수집하고 각 행정구역에 정량화하여 중첩했다. 수치로 정리된 공간정보는 공간정보 전문가가 아니더라도 각행정구역의 특성을 이해하는데 많은 도움이 될 것으로 예상된다. 또한 ArcGIS를 기반으로 구상된 지리정보표출시스템은 각 행정구역 별로 입력된 다양한 공간정보가 수치, 그래프 등으로 상세하게 제공되도록 구상되었다.
○ 라디오존데 관측자료를 활용하여 최근 17년 동안 한반도 고층관측지점 7개소에서 발생한 집중호우(> 30 mm hr⁻¹)의 열적·열역학적 특징에 대하여 논의하였다.집중호우를 유발한 종관 기상환경은 장마전선에 의해서 발생한 사례가 34%로 가장 많은 비중을 차지하였고, 기압골(22%), 이동성 저기압(15%), 고기압가장자리(12%),태풍(11%), 그리고 장마전선 상에서 발달한 저기압(6%) 순으로 나타났다. CAPE와 SREH의 산포도를 통해 살펴본 집중호우사례의 대기환경은 미 대륙의 뇌우(thunderstorm) 수준과 유사하였다. 그러나 거대뇌우(supercell thunderstorm)와 토네이도(tornado)와 같이 CAPE와 SREH가 모두 큰 극단적인 조건이 한반도에서는 나타나지 않는 차이를 보였다.
구름분해모델인 CReSS를 통해 집중호우를 유발한 대류스톰(convective storm)의 구조에 대하여 분석하였다. 열역학적 불안정과 관련된 스톰은 약 2-3 K의 치올림(bubble)을 통해 모의할 수 있었다. 이러한 스톰은 20 m s⁻¹이상의 상승류를 동반하여 급격히 성장하였고, 대류권계면(약 13 km)까지 도달하였다. 상승류 중심부는 지표면에 강한 강우를 생성하였고, 돌출구름꼭대기(overshooting cloud top)와 모루(anvil)를 만들었다. 그리고 이러한 스톰들은 SREH의 세기에 따라서 단일세포(약한 SREH) 또는 다중세포(큰 SREH)로 성장 하였다.
재해기상연구센터에서는 지난 2011년 구름분해모델 앙상블 기반 24시간 선행집중호우 확률예측 시스템을 개발하였다. 이 연구에서는 2013년과 2014년 여름 동안 총 43사례에 대해 검증을 수행 하여 활용 가능성에 대해 평가하고자 하였다. 전반적으로 집중호우 발생을 감지하는 능력은 높으나, 예측에 실패하는 비율도 높게 나타났다. 정확도와 임계성공지수가 기준 확률을 0%했을 때 0.88로 높았으나 20%기준으로 검증한 결과 0.4로 낮아졌다. 그리고 편이는 기준이 20% 이상으로 높은 경우 약 2배 이상 과대 예측 하는 것으로 나타났다.
강원지역의 예보 능력 향상을 위하여 운용되고 있는 국지예보시스템에 대해 최적화된 모델 설계를 통해 900 m, 300 m 영역으로 구성된 고해상도 시스템을 구성하였으며, 실시간 검증체계 및 후처리 과정을 구축하였다. 2015년도에는 지상관측자료 및 모바일 기상관측자료를 이용한 자료동화 시스템을 추가하였으며, AWS와 모바일 기상관측자료의 효과를 알아보기 위하여 2014년 7월과 8월에 대하여 민감도 실험을 수행하였다. 지상관측자료를 사용한 경우 모델의 강수예측에 개선되는 효과를 보였으며, AWS와 모바일 기상관측자료를 모두 사용 한 경우보다 모바일 기상관측자료만 사용한 경우 좀더 좋은 결과를 보였다. 이는 적정량의 관측자료가 모델 성능향상에 더 기여함을 보여준다.
국지예보시스템이 관측에 대해 지상 온도를 과소모의하는 현상이 발견되어 민감도 실험을 통해 모델을 개선하고자 하였다. 다양한 PBL 방안을 적용해본결과 MYJ 방안이 온도 과소모의를 가장 관측에 가깝게 모의 하였으며, 2014년 1월 한달동안 일 1회마다 MYJ 방안을 적용한 실험을 수행하여 규준실험과 비교하였다.영역 내 AWS를 이용한 지상 2m 온도에 대한 RMSE 검증에서는 MYJ 방안이 규준실험인 YSU 방안에 비해 더 작은 오차를 보였으나 상대습도와 풍속은 악화되는 모습을 보였다.

Abstract ▼

□. Research Contents and Results
○ Mobile observation vehicle system, which was introduced in 2012, test operation in 2013, was carried out to improve the internal environment of 2014.To ensure safe loading and storage space of the helium gas, and equipped with aluminum frame inside the vehicle.

□. Research Contents and Results
○ Mobile observation vehicle system, which was introduced in 2012, test operation in 2013, was carried out to improve the internal environment of 2014.To ensure safe loading and storage space of the helium gas, and equipped with aluminum frame inside the vehicle. Also, the suspension of the vehicle using the air compressor, was replaced by a method of control the shock absorber. LED electronic display was installed to display realtime data of mobile observation vehicle. Electronic display was installed in minimizing influence other observation device, and was displayed in three colors.
○ To verify accurate observation data of mobile observation vehicle, data of mobile observation vehicle was compared and analyzed with AWS data of Gangwon regional meteorological adminstration. When average data per 1 minute of mobile observation vehicle was used in three factor (temperature, atmospheric press, relative humidity), most of data was linear correlation in excepting error of measurement in observation place. Also, data observed with high resolution by using the MAOS was conducted sensitivity experiments to analyze the influence of the numerical model prediction performance. Data of temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, and wind(direction and speed) observed in moving the Gangwon-do mountainous area and coastal road.
○ Observed wind from the mobile observation vehicle is different from true wind. so additional operation is performed in data logger. but produced wind from data logger and true wind are different, was performed verification. first, made same algorithms program to fortran. then, data made in the fortran program. as a result of comparing data logger data and program data, true wind is similar to the fixed observation and slow constant speed observation, relativetrue wind is a different in the moving observation and high constant speed observation. but, everything data is so very similar that true wind algorithms had confirmed so that this is performed correctly. analysis of the differences in the move is necessary. in addition, the analysis for the difference in observation data and data logger data is necessary.data observed in the mobile observation vehicle in real time to provide a problem in a reliability. so must be provided behind quality control. quality control is there are a number of ways. realtime quality control program used confidence interval quality control. also create with 1minutes mean data for the smallest unit prevent problems with the realtime transmission. and provide a variety of formats. as a result, can be taking advantage of the observation data of the mobile observation vehicle.
○ Operation of the Mobile Observation Vehicle has been classified as a type of observation focused observation, co-observation, observation support, test observations. Operating days increased significantly in 2013 compared to an increase of the test observation and observation supports. and number of upper air observation has increased.
○ Focused observations were carried out in the event of weather special report, heavy rain, typhoon, severe rain storm. but after September decreased the number of times to carry out observations. In conjunction with other agencies or department the observation was performed in accordance with the object in Nakdong river, capital area.
○ Observation were supported by 2014 Incheon Asian Game, 2014 Incheon Para Game, 95th National Sports Festival. In addition, Mobile Observation Vehicle exhibition and description, upper air observation experience was in progress for World Meteorological Day.
○ This study investigated the performances of precipitable water vapor (PWV)retrieval from the sets of ground global positioning system (GPS) signals, each of which had different length of observing-session duration, for the purpose of obtaining as short session duration as possible that is required at the least for appropriate retrieval of the PWV for meteorological usage. The shorter duration is highly desirable to make the most use of the GPS instrument on board the mobile observation vehicle making measurements place by plcae. First, using Bernese 5.0 software the PWV retrieval was conducted with the data sets of GPS signals archived continuously in 30 seconds interval during 2-month period of January and February, 2012 at Bukgangneung site. Each of the PWVs produced independently using different session durations was compared to that of radio-sonde launched at the same GPS location, a Bukgangneung site.Second, the same procedure was done using the static data sets obtained from the mobile observation vehicle that was operating at Boseong area in Jeonnam province during Changma observation campaign in 2013, and the results were compared to that at Bukgangneung site. The results showed that as the observing-session duration increased the retrieval errors decreased with the dramatic change happening between 3 and 4 hours of the duration. On average,the root mean square error (RMSE) of the retrieved PWV was around 1 mm for the durations of greater than 4 hours. The results at both the Bukgangneung(fixed site) and Boseong (mobile vehicle) seemed to be fairly comparable with each other. On the other hand, we also conducted retrieval experiments of PWV using received GPS datasets of mobile observation vehicle during driving on the Eastern Coast of Korea in 2014. For the purpose of performance evaluation of PWV retrievals from mobile GPS, we compared mobile GPS-derived PWVs to those of three reference sites nearby moving route of East Shore at the same time to suggest the result of statistical test, which cause of errors examined for the perspective of GPS satellite geometry and convergence time. As a result, the RMSE (8.7 mm) is not significant compared to results of static observation, and we did not address a dominant factor which can have a bad impact on the PWV error such as multipath effect, posion dilution of precision (PDOP), signal to noise ration (SNR), and so on. However, this study can contribute to availability of PWV information from the mobile GPS with a high temporal/spatial resolution.
○ High Impact Weather Research Center (HIWRC) which is division of National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) has conducted test operation and utilization study of Weather Lidar Mobile System (WLMS) in 2014 in order to improve cloud micro-physics process within numerical weather prediction model. WLMS can move to target area where we want. It was designed in order to study regarding more detail cloud micro-physics for example the change of cloud particles size and shape with vertical height. The lidar system that is possible to classify with relative cloud particle size and shape, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), visibility meter and PARSIVEL are on board WLMS.
○ In 2014, WLMS conducted measurements to validate itself and get analysis data at Cloud Physics Observation System (CPOS) in Daegwallyeong and at National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weather (NCIOSW) in Boseong.
The measurement results that compared with between two observation sites show that lidar system was well monitoring change of aerosol optical properties in low level atmosphere. Also reliability and highly sensitive with weather conditions of visibility meter is verified by correlation coefficient(R²) higher than 0.9 and the vertical lidar signal changed by weather conditions.
In case of the analysis results of GNSS and PARSIVEL, changing of precipitable water vapor and of cloud particle size and water contents were well monitored when precipitation is started and ended. Lidar system, however, has the faults that is not monitoring the inner structure of thick cloud and is get lower reliability when visibility is deteriorating at low level atmosphere. But the above-mentioned problems may solve with installing 3D lidar scanning system on WLMS.
The analysis results compared with Planetary Boundary Layer(PBL) height estimated from between lidar backscatter(532 nm) and sonde show that R² is higher than 0.4 during fare-weather. But during all measurement period(June 15∼ July 15 in 2014), it is lower than 0.1. This problem may solve in future by applying the noise from cloud reduce algorithm and validating lidar signal under overlap height.
If we use well the real time data of aerosol optical properties and vertical atmospheric structures from WLMS, it will be the great instrument about weather forecasting and atmosphere diffusion prediction.
○ In order to using WRF-Fire on the forest fire spread prediction in korea,there should be a high-resolution fuel data, which was not provided. Therefore High-resolution Land-Use is categorized as Anderson Fuel Model, there is no better alternative method. In this study the experiments of WRF-Fire model was conducted in order to revise fuel data set that is one of factors causing error of burned area. The experiments were performed with 6 fuel data set composed of each different classification that is generated in such a way that 23 land cover classify into 13 Anderson Fuel Model. The experiment results indicate that it reduces errors of burned area to change Urban and Agricultural Land Cover categories classified as nonfuel in Anderson Fuel model into fuel, and Forest Land Cover(deciduous broadleaf forest, coniferous forest, mixed forest) categories classified as 8, 9, 2 into 10, 8, 9 in Anderson Fuel Model. The simulated results using modified fuel data indicate that categorization of Urban Land Cover should be modified. and WRF-Fire should be improved to simulate forest fire jumping over the fuel such as crown fire. The modified fuel data will contribute to more accurate forest fire spread prediction in Korea using WRF-Fire.
○ Disasters caused by the weather in Korea is showing a variety of damage types in each administrative district. According to the characteristics of each administrative district has the need to establish a standard of the special weather warning because it has nationally 1 standard. Therefore, in this study, DB system is constructed a damage type of about 40 kinds included life and property based on Annual Disaster Book of National Emergency Management Agency and Meteorological data from 1982 to 2012 as part of the research-based for differentiate the special weather warning and analyze the characteristics of the weather disasters in each administrative district. Weather DB was constructed on the basis of the data of 61 pieces of ASOS points that are maintained between the disaster '31. Spatial data indicating the characteristics of the region was constructed based on the data provided from a plurality of agencies. Based on the constructed data, and analyzed the characteristics of disasters nationwide.
○ Based on the meteorological data of the affected materials and disaster period, I analyzed the basic disaster vulnerability of the region. This analysis, as well as patterns of regional weather patterns and disaster, heavy rain, heavy snow, such as by analyzing the most vulnerable disaster or by weather scale of the damage scale in high winds disaster, and disaster vulnerable from the most basic point of view I analyzed the gender. On the basis of the constructed affected materials and meteorological data, regional heavy rain, heavy snow, the total amount of damage of strong winds disaster, the total precipitation amount of damage based analysis and disaster period, such as the average amount of damage a case-by-case basis, the average of each case run weather scale based analysis, such as precipitation and analyzed disaster vulnerability basic areas. And analyzing the disaster damage scale due to meteorological phenomena, it ispossible to analyze the disaster vulnerability local weather strength concepts. Since the scale of disaster damage is distributed widely and analyzed disaster vulnerabilities in accordance with the scale of damage by dividing the scale disasters in three stages.
○ Regional weak characteristics analyzed through various analyzes show similar damage properties in adjacent areas. And depending on the size and urban environments, the same type of damage characteristic is revealed. Cause analysis disaster vulnerability type of region through a crowd analysis was performed to find. Analysis of Disaster vulnerability types, since in the method of analyzing the four types at least two arguments, using a number of variables, and expanded in a manner to be analyzed into six types. Type analysis, depending on the number of the used parameters and type, and analyzed their characteristics. However, studies considering the disaster affected prior precipitation disaster period should be performed in the future.
○ This study investigated the method that can provide a variety of spatial information that is directly exposed to weather disasters so that users can easily use. Also, It was planned Geographic Information Display System for the user to easily recognize by displaying the spatial information. The provision of spatial information plays an important role in identifying the characteristics of each administrative district. This study was to quantify statistical formats, vector formats, and the spatial information of the raster data formats and nested in each administrative district. The spatial information is organized as a figures, if not the experts are expected to be helpful in understanding the characteristics of each administrative district. Also, Geographic Information Display System based on ArcGIS was planned that can provide a variety of spatial information in detail in the figures, and graphs.
○ Geographic information was compared about each administrative district in order to analyze the influence of geographic information for damage caused by weather disasters based on heavy rainfall event occurred August 25, 2014 in Busan and typhoon occurred from 2003 to 2012 in Korea. As a result, Vulnerable areas of the typhoon and heavy rainfall event are common in agricultural areas appeared. Also, in the case of heavy rainfall event, low population density region, high non-urban ratio region, and this large region forest area was vulnerable areas. However, the characteristics of geographic information presented in this study has the need for more in-depth studies because some of the differences the results of previous studies.
○ Heavy rainfall (> 30 mm hr⁻¹) over Korean peninsula is examined to determine the dynamical and thermodynamical characteristics through radiosonde observational data from seven upper-air observation stations during the recent 17 years (1997-13). A total of 82 cases of heavy rainfall during summer(June-August) were selected for this study. The average values of environmental indices of heavy rainfall events are TPW = 60 mm, CAPE = 850 Jkg⁻¹, CIN = 15 J kg⁻¹, SREH = 160 m² s⁻², and 0-3 km bulk wind shear = 5 s⁻¹. About 34% of the cases were associated with a changma-front, it is more significant than other pressure patterns: trough (22%), migratory cyclone (15%), edge of high-pressure (12%), typhoon (11%), and low-pressure originated from changma front (6%). Those distribution of environmental conditions (CAPE and SREH) are similar to range of thunderstorm over the United State but extreme conditions, which are occurred supercell thunderstorm and tornado, didn't appeared in the Korean peninsula. Moreover, we analyzed structure of convective cloud by numerical simulation using CReSS. The convective storms associated with thermal atmospheric instability are can be simulated by small lifting forcing(+2-3 K bubble). These storms developed very rapidly and reached the tropopause, such as those maximum updrafts and cloud heights of storms are over 20 m s⁻¹ and 13 km. The updraft cores produce heavy rainfall at surface and make overshooting cloud top and anvil. And these storms grow a single or multi cells according to those weak or strong SREH.
○ A heavy snowfall event that occurred 6~14 February 2014 along the coastal area was performed using observation data and numerical simulation result. These case lasted for 9 days, because of pressure ridge for omega form develops in Bering Sea, the barometer flow of East Asia was delayed. The northeast flow in Yeongdong region and over the adjacent sea turned northwest as it approached the mountain. The mountain blocking effect was strong(Froude number ~ 0.247). A strong convergence area formed where the cold northwest flow along the Yeongdong coastal area and relatively warm and moist northeast flow advecting toward the coast met. Thus, the vertical motion was strongest over the front located near the coast, leading to the heavy snowfall there rather than in the remote mountain area.
○ By 2013, the average heavy rainfall lead time was 90.9 min in KMA(Korea Meteorological Administration). This lead times is not sufficient to take shelter from the heavy rainfall. We need longer lead times because of longer lead times allow for more residents to be warned of and take appropriate precautions for an approaching heavy rainfall. So, we developed lead time 24-h heavy rainfall probability forecast system based on cloud model ensemble to forecast of heavy rainfall occurrence probability at 2011. We experimented on summer season(June~August) of 2013~2014 for a total of 43 case, and meteorological verification(forecast accuracy, bias score, probability of detection, false alarm ratio, critical success index) are used with variety of criteria. In this study evaluate special quality for heavy rainfall occurrence probability between AWS and ensemble model output. The result showed that probability detection is highly, but also false alarm score have a high. The accuracy is over 0.88 when verification criteria is over 0%, as over 20% is about 04. The bias score is over 2 in verification criteria over 20%. That is overestimated heavy rainfall occurrence probability in system.
○ To improve the forecast ability for Gangwon Province, the optimization procedure was applied to GWRF(Gangwon Weather Research and Forecasting Model). UM(Unified Model) LDAPS(Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) data were used as the initial and boundary conditions. High-resolution system consisting of 900 m and 300 m domains was constructed. Finally, real-time verification and post-processing system were established. In order to examine the data assimilation effect of AWS and MAOS(Mobile Atmospheric Observing System) data. As a result, we confirmed that there is a positive effect on AWS and MAOS data are quantitative precipitation forecast. Analysis verification was performed using an analysis field for 6 hour intervals. As a result, averaged RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) of surface temperature, surface relative humidity, east-west wind and south-north wind was improved by approximately 0.259, 0.516, 0.275 and 0.109. AWS data assimilation effect was confirmed that there is an influence to about 700 hPa.
○ High Impact Weather Research Center is regularly carring out special observations to clarify the mechanism of heavy snow in east coast of the Korean Peninsula. In Bukgangneung and Uljin weather station, the special observation using radiosonde was performed to investigate precipitation events during the 2012 winter season. Additionally, GPS was installed in Bukgangneung. Three-dimensional variational data assimilation(3DVAR) was used to analyze the effect of ground-based GPS PWV on forecast. Automatic Weather Station(AWS) data was used for forecast evaluation. In addition, verification of forecasted PWV was carried out with GPS and radiosonde PWV. For relative humidity, it is found that there is a overall improvement in EXP compared to CTL. On the other hand, appreciable effect of data assimilation was not found in temperature and wind speed verification. In PWV verification using GPS and radiosonde, improvement effect was maintained up to 36 hours in validation results for GPS PWV. On the other hand, improvement in forecast is not significant against verification results using the GPS PWV.
○ From case studies, underestimation tendency of surface temperature for observation was found in GWRF(Gangwon Weather Research and Forecasting Model). Through sensitivity experiments, we attempted to improve surface temperature of GWRF. Release rate of long-wave radiation is lowered but the effect is not great. Clear improvement due to increased vertical levels and radiation scheme call has not been found. Tendency of sudden surface temperature drop after sunset was mitigated in thermal diffusion but deviation in daytime was increased with respect to other land-surface schemes. The lower the model lowermost level, there was improvement in surface temperature prediction but calculation instability was occurred. In PBL sensitivity experiment, MYJ scheme showed a smaller error compared to YSU scheme but accuracy of relative humidity and wind velocity was deteriorated.
○ Analyze and predict the weather phenmenon of mountainous areas to build the FWRF(Forest Weather Research and Forecast). UM(Unified Model) LDAPS(Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) data were used as the initial and boundary conditions. High-resolution system consisting of 900 m domain was constructed. WRF(Weather Research and Forecast) FDDA(Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation) was adapted in order to produce surface analysis fields with enhanced quality using mountain AWS(Automatic Weather System) data. Using the KMA AWS and mountain AWS data were the sensitivity experiments on precipitation and forest fire cases. As a result, data assimilation effect did’t affect the forecast fields after +6 hour. Therefore, AWS observation data to improve the surface analysis fields, there is a positive effect could be confirmed.

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1
• 목차 ... 3
• 표목차 ... 9
• 그림목차 ... 13
• 국문요약문 ... 30
• 영문요약문 ... 36
• 제1장 서론 ... 49
• 제2장 재해기상 모바일 관측망 구축운영 및 활용연구 ... 52
• 제1절 기상관측차량시스템 운영 환경개선 및 관측자료 관리 ... 52
• 1.기상관측차량시스템 운영 환경개선 및 관측자료관리 ... 52
• 2.기상관측차량시스템 관측자료 품질관리(Quality Control) ... 58
• 제2절 2014년 재해기상 관측실험 ... 85
• 1.집중관측 실험 ... 86
• 2.공동관측 실험 ... 92
• 3.관측지원 실험 ... 95
• 4.기상관측차량시스템의 GNSS 가강수량 활용연구 ... 104
• 제3절 기상라이다차량시스템 시험운영 및 활용연구 ... 132
• 1.기상라이다차량시스템 소개 ... 132
• 2.2014년 시험관측 결과 ... 137
• 제3장 재해기상의 사회경제적 영향예보시스템 기반연구 ... 164
• 제1절 기상요인에 대한 재해발생 및 피해 위험도 지수개발 ... 164
• 1.산불확산예측모델(WRF-Fire)의 실용성 제고를 위한 연료구성방안연구 ... 164
• 제2절 지역밀착형 특보기준 차등화 방안연구 ... 184
• 1.GIS기반 기상·지리·피해정보 DB자료 다양화 ... 184
• 2.1982~2012년 발생한 재해의 지역별 취약성 분석 ... 208
• 3. 재해 및 지리정보자료 기반 재해 취약성 유형분석 ... 227
• 제3절 재해기상분석 시스템 고도화 연구 ... 256
• 1.재해기상분석시스템 프로토타입 구상 및 지리정보 제공방안 연구 ... 256
• 2.지리정보 기반의 재해기상 사례연구 ... 264
• 제4장 재해기상 예측정확도 향상연구 ... 279
• 제1절 초고해상도 재해기상 분석·예측연구 ... 279
• 1.라디오존데 자료를 활용한 집중호우 관련 한반도 연직대기환경 및 모의적란운 분석 ... 279
• 2.2014년 2월 6~14일 영동대설에 대한 고층관측자료와 재현실험을 통한 분석 ... 310
• 3.구름분해모텔(CreSS)앙상블기반 24시간 선행 집중호우 확률 예측성 검증 ... 324
• 제2절 WRF 모델기반 국지예보시스템 개선 ... 334
• 1.강원국지예보시스템 최적화 및 모바일 기상관측자료 활용체계 구축 ... 334
• 2.변분자료동화를 통한 GPS가강수량 자료효과분석 ... 349
• 3.WRF민간도 실험을 활용한 지상변수 예측성능 연구 ... 362
• 4.산림청 AWS 자료를 이용한 산지기상분석시스템 구축 ... 370
• 제5장 요약 및 결론 ... 382
• 참고문헌 ... 384
• GIS 기반 재해기상 분석시스템 고도화 ... 395
• 강원영도 대설 및 한파 특성분석 및 예측기법 개발 ... 481
• 기상라이더차량시스템 최적화 운영기반 구축 ... 599
• 끝페이지 ... 671