보고서 정보
주관연구기관 |
한국농촌경제연구원 Korea Rural Economic Institute |
연구책임자 |
채광석
|
참여연구자 |
김홍상
,
김연중
,
김부영
|
보고서유형 | 연차보고서 |
발행국가 | 대한민국 |
언어 |
한국어
|
발행년월 | 2017-12 |
과제시작연도 |
2017 |
주관부처 |
국무조정실 The Office for Government Policy Coordination |
등록번호 |
TRKO201800042648 |
과제고유번호 |
1105012072 |
사업명 |
한국농촌경제연구원 |
DB 구축일자 |
2018-11-03
|
DOI |
https://doi.org/10.23000/TRKO201800042648 |
초록
▼
□ 연구 배경
○ 수입농산물의 지속적인 증가로 수입산에 의한 국내산 대체가 확대되고 전반적인 공급 과잉으로 인해 농산물 가격이 하락하면서 밭작물 재배농가의 소득이 감소함. 이에 따라 근본적인 밭농업 발전 전략 및 경쟁력 제고 대책의 마련이 요구됨.
○ 본 연구는 3개년에 걸친 다년 연구 중 3차년도 연구에 해당하며, 밭농업의 소비·수요 측면과 생산 지속성 측면에서 지역별 대응 방식, 부가가치 제고 전략 등 지역 단위에서의 밭농업 경쟁력 제고 방안을 제시하고자 함.
- 1차년도 연구는 ‘밭농업 실태에 대한 객관적인 인
□ 연구 배경
○ 수입농산물의 지속적인 증가로 수입산에 의한 국내산 대체가 확대되고 전반적인 공급 과잉으로 인해 농산물 가격이 하락하면서 밭작물 재배농가의 소득이 감소함. 이에 따라 근본적인 밭농업 발전 전략 및 경쟁력 제고 대책의 마련이 요구됨.
○ 본 연구는 3개년에 걸친 다년 연구 중 3차년도 연구에 해당하며, 밭농업의 소비·수요 측면과 생산 지속성 측면에서 지역별 대응 방식, 부가가치 제고 전략 등 지역 단위에서의 밭농업 경쟁력 제고 방안을 제시하고자 함.
- 1차년도 연구는 ‘밭농업 실태에 대한 객관적인 인식과 정책과제의 구체화’에 초점을 두었고, 2차년도 연구는 생산기반 정비, 자원의 효율적 이용, 영세성 보완을 위한 조직화 방안 등을 심층연구과제로 제시하였음.
○ 1, 2차년도 연구에서 제시된 연구 결과를 바탕으로 밭농업 경쟁력 제고방안을 구체화하기 위해 본 연구에서는 밭작물 소비와 관련하여 소비트렌드 분석 등을 통해 지역 단위의 밭농업 경쟁력 대응이 가능한지를 살펴보고, 이를 통해 사례 중심으로 경쟁력 제고 방안을 도출하고자 함.
□ 연구 방법
○ 다음소프트의 소셜매트릭스 빅데이터를 활용하여 주요 밭작물에 대한 소비자의 선호를 분석함. 분석 방법으로 연관어 분석과 감성 분석을 적용함.
○ 밭농업 경쟁력이 비교적 높은 10개 지역을 선정하여 해당 지역의 밭작물 생산 및 출하 시스템을 심층적으로 조사함.
○ 2015년 농업총조사 자료와 가락동 도매시장 경매가격 자료를 활용하여 농가판매액 증가 요인과 농산물 경매가격에 영향을 미치는 차별화 요인을 분석함.
○ KREI 소비자패널 1,000명과 KREI 현지통신원 934명을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시함.
○ 농업경쟁력 제고를 위한 정책 추진 체계를 살펴보기 위해 프랑스와 이스라엘을 대상으로 해외 선진지 사례조사를 실시함.
□ 밭작물 소비 및 트렌드 변화
○ 밭작물 구매 시 소비자들은 주로 신선도, 맛, 향 등 품질과 국내산 여부를 중시하는 것으로 조사됨. 생산자 브랜드 및 상표도 고려하지만, 안전성(GAP 등), 간편성(소포장 등)보다는 후순위임. 또한 소비자는 국내산 여부보다 국내산지를 고려하는 비중이 낮게 나타남.
○ 주요 밭작물에 대한 SNS 빅데이터를 분석한 결과, 작물의 브랜드나 생산단체보다는 맛(식감), 요리법(조리방법, 함께 먹으면 좋은 음식), 효능에 대한 언급이 많은 것으로 나타남. 맛과 신선도를 유지할 수 있고 조리가 용이한 생산 및 유통 시스템이 필요함.
○ 밭작물의 신선도를 유지할 수 있는 유통망으로 온라인 오픈마켓 또는 종합몰 형태의 유통망을 적극 활용할 필요가 있음. 현재 신선식품의 유통 구조는 오프라인 매장에서 온라인 또는 모바일 쇼핑몰로 변화하고 있음.
- 국내에서는 지마켓, 옥션, 네이버, 카카오 등이 온라인상에서 신선식품을 판매하며, 글로벌 전자상거래업체인 아마존은 2007년부터 신선 식품 배송서비스를 시작함.
○ 또한 소비 유형을 고려하여 소포장 및 단순 1차 가공(세척, 절단 등) 등 조리와 섭취가 용이하도록 포장·가공되어 유통될 필요가 있음.
□ 지역 단위 생산대응 방식
○ 밭농업의 생산기반 조성을 위해서는 종묘의 생산 및 보급이 우선되어야 함. 밭농업 시스템화의 가장 우선이 되는 단계로서 병충해와 바이러스에 강하고 기계화와 연계시켜 수확작업도 용이한 종자와 육묘기술을 확립해야 함.
○ 해당 지자체의 농기계 임대 지원 관련 정책 시행 시 적극적이고 체계적인 지원시스템을 확립할 필요가 있음. ① 농가의 공동이용 및 지역 실정에 적합한 임대농기계 구입, ② 밭농사용 소형농기계와 부속작업기의 구입, ③ 임대농기계 창고 설치, ④ 지게차 등 임대농기계 관리장비 구입, ⑤ 임대농기계 관리를 위한 전산시스템 구축 등을 중점적으로 검토 할 필요가 있음.
○ 지방자치단체 등 공적 기능이 HW를 구축하는 데 기여하였으나, 이후의 발전을 위해서는 산지조직의 사업력 등 SW 측면의 혁신이 더욱 중요함.
○ “생산”[농지 활용, 인력 운용, 기계화 등 생산 체계], “산지유통”[APC 건립, 산지유통조직 육성 등], “6차산업화 등 부가가치화”[가공 지원,지역생산품 활용, 중소사업체 협력네트워킹]로 구성된 가치사슬을 하나의 시스템으로 체계화하는 완결적 모델을 추구할 필요가 있음.
○ 지역 단위에서 다양한 형태의 차별화된 리더십과 리더십에 따른 시장에서의 신뢰, 조직화, 미래 전망 등과 관련된 구심점의 형성이 중요함. 주요 품목에 대한 국가의 주도적 역할이 함께 검토되어야 함.
□ 밭농업 부가가치 현황과 성과
○ 밭농업의 부가가치 구조 특성은 타 산업에 비해 영업잉여의 비중이 높음. 2014년 기준, 밭농업 부가가치 항목 중에서 영업잉여가 65.8%, 고정자본소모가 20.0%, 피용자보수가 12.2%의 비중을 차지함.
- 타 산업에 비해 피용자보수의 비중이 매우 낮은데, 이는 밭농업의 경우 대부분 자가노동 혹은 가족노동으로 생산이 이루어지기 때문임.
○ 농림업의 부가가치 변화 추이를 보면, 영업잉여의 비중이 점차 감소하고, 고정자본소모의 비중이 점차 증대되고 있음.
○ 농산물판매액 수준에 영향을 미치는 요인이 무엇인지 분석한 결과, 생산자조직 참여가 농축산물 판매액 향상에 긍정적인 효과가 있는 것으로 나타남.
- 특히 지역특산물 판매, 직판장 운영 등을 통한 농산물 직거래는 중간유통 비용을 줄임으로써 농가의 부가가치 제고에 긍정적 영향을 주는 것으로 나타남.
< 요약 및 시사점 1 > 지역 단위 밭농업 경쟁력 제고 방안
○ R&D 기획 단계부터 지자체-연구기관-농가조직이 연합하여 현장수요 중심의 기술 개발 및 보급을 추진함. 밭농업의 생산기반 조성을 위해서는 지역 여건에 적합한 종묘의 생산·보급이 우선되어야 함. 실례로 여주시와 농촌진흥청, 경기도농업기술원 등이 공동으로 고구마 바이러스 무병묘를 생산하여 노동력과 농가경영비를 획기적으로 절감하는 데 기여함.
○ 소비 유형을 고려하여 조리와 섭취가 용이하도록 소포장 및 단순 1차 가공(세척, 절단 등)하여 유통함. 최근 소포장은 기본이고, 혼합과일세트 및 밀키트(Meal Kit) 등 기획상품 매출이 증가하고 있기 때문에, 상품화 전략으로 단순한 원물을 유통하는 단계를 넘어 신선편이 식품 또는 가공 등의 상품을 개발함.
○ 신선도 유지가 중요한 과제이며 이를 위해서는 온라인 중심의 콜드체인 시스템(Cold Chain System) 유통망을 구축함.
< 요약 및 시사점 2 > 정부 차원의 제도개선 방안
○ 중앙 집중 R&D 조직의 지역 분산으로 현장 밀착 연구가 가능하도록 개편함. 정부 주도의 연구개발 후 보급·확산하는 단선적 체계가 유지됨 으로써 다양한 연구 및 확산 수요(보급과 사업화)를 충족하지 못하고 있음. 주요 선진국(미국, 일본, 이스라엘)에서는 지역연구센터를 설치하여 지역에 특화된 연구를 수행하고, “연구기관-영농지도-농가” 3자 연대를 통해 현장수요 중심의 기술 개발 및 보급을 추진할 필요가 있음.
○ 보다 실효성 있는 농산물 품질보증 체계를 구축할 필요가 있음. 설문조사 결과, 우리나라의 GAP 인증, 친환경 인증, 농산물이력추적 관리 인증에 대한 소비자의 신뢰가 높지 않고, 지자체의 품질인증 제도에 대한 신뢰도가 떨어지는 것으로 나타남. 프랑스의 농산물 품질보증 체계와 같이 보다 엄격하고 소비자에게 친숙한 품질인증 제도를 도입하여 농산물 품질 보증으로 농산물의 가치를 높이고 부가가치를 창출하는 방향으로 접근해야 함.
( 출처: 요약 4p )
Abstract
▼
□ Background of Research
○ In this three-year study, the first-year study focused on objective awareness of the current status of dry-field farming and the concretization of policy tasks. The second-year study presented the improvement of the production base, the efficient use of resources, ways
□ Background of Research
○ In this three-year study, the first-year study focused on objective awareness of the current status of dry-field farming and the concretization of policy tasks. The second-year study presented the improvement of the production base, the efficient use of resources, ways to organize farms in order to supplement their small scale as tasks for in-depth research.
○ The overall oversupply has decreased field crop prices, and with a continuous increase in imported agricultural products, more imports have replaced domestic products. This has led to a fall in field crop farms' income. Therefore, it is needed to prepare fundamental strategies to develop dry-field farming and measures to improve competitiveness.
- The third-year study presents ways to increase the regional competitiveness of dry-field farming, including regional countermeasures and strategies to improve value added in terms of consumption, demand and production sustainability of field crops.
○ For the development of dry-field farming, it is necessary to establish an efficient, consumer-oriented supply system.
- This study suggests concrete ways to improve the competitiveness of dry-field farming based on the findings of the first- and second-year studies. Particularly, this third-year study examines the possibility of regional responses for the competitiveness of dry-field farming by analyzing trends related to the consumption of field crops, and draws ways to enhance competitiveness by focusing on concrete cases.
- While the existing methods to increase the competitiveness of dry-field farming have mainly concentrated on cutting costs and improving efficiency on the production side, this study derives ways to enhance the regional competitiveness of dry-field farming in consideration of consumption and demand.
□ Methods of Research
○ To analyze consumers' preference related to consumption trends, keyword analysis was conducted. As keyword analysis, related word analysis and sentiment analysis were carried out. This study utilized social metrics provided by Daumsoft.
○ Case studies were conducted on 10 regions to identify cases of regions that are improving the competitiveness of dry-field farming, and to review ways to establish a regional field crop production and shipment system.
○ Quantitative analysis was carried out, including analyzing factors in an increase in farms' sales and analyzing the impact of a differentiation factor on agricultural auction prices by using data from the 2015 Agricultural Census and auction price data of the Garak-dong Wholesale Market.
○ A survey was conducted for producers and consumers.
- The KREI consumer panel of 1,000 people was surveyed to identify purchase and consumption behavior related to agricultural products, considerations in purchasing the products, awareness of brands and certification systems, etc.
- Also, 934 KREI local correspondents were surveyed to identify major activities and difficulties by farming activity in the value chain stage, demand for policy support, etc.
○ To examine policy implementation systems for the improvement of agricultural competitiveness, case studies on two advanced countries, France and Israel, were performed.
- In France, the following were investigated: the production situation of fruits and vegetables, a quality assurance system, marketing strategies, methods to operate organizations of producers and business operators, and so on.
- In Israel, the study focused on the performance and policy situation of investment in agricultural R&D.
□ Changes in Consumption and Trends of Field Crops
○ According to the survey, when purchasing field crops, consumers mainly valued quality such as freshness, taste, and fragrance, and whether they are domestic products.
- Consumers also consider brands, but they are less considered than safety (GAP etc.) and convenience (small packaging etc.). In addition, while consumers value whether field crops are domestic products, the proportion of those considering domestic producing areas was relatively low.
○ According to the result of analyzing keywords by utilizing SNS big data on major field crops, taste (texture), cooking tips (recipes, foods good to eat together), and effect were mentioned more than particular brands or producer groups.
- Therefore, it is required to produce and distribute products whose taste and freshness can be maintained and whose recipes are easy.
○ It is important to maintain the taste (texture) of field crops that consumers want as well as to provide it. For this, it is necessary to create a distribution net that can maintain freshness.
- The global e-commerce company Amazon launched AmazonFresh, the fresh food delivery service in 2007, and has delivered groceries in 24 hours after purchase. In Korea, Gmarket, Auction, Naver, Kakao and so forth sell fresh food. That is, the distribution structure of fresh food is changing from offline to online, and producers need to seek ways to use this distribution net.
○ In consideration of consumption types, small packaging and simple primary processing (washing, cutting, etc.) for easy cooking and intake are necessary.
□ Regional Production Methods
○ To create the production base of dry-field farming, it is needed to first produce and disseminate seeds.
- This is the most urgent stage for the systematization of dry-field farming. It is necessary to develop technologies for raising seeds and seedlings resistant to pest, disease, and viruses, and for easy harvest through mechanization.
○ Local governments should build active and systematic support systems for agricultural machine rental support policies.
- For this, it is required to consider 1) jointly using agricultural machines among farms and purchasing agricultural machines for rental that suit regional situations, 2) purchasing small agricultural machines and attachments for dry-field farming, 3) building warehouses for agricultural machines for rental, 4) purchasing equipment for managing the machines including forklifts, and 5) creating a computing system to manage agricultural machines for rental, and so on.
○ The public function, including local governments, has contributed to establishing hardware. However, for future development, it is more important to innovate software such as the business ability of organizations in producing areas.
- In planning and marketing, the role of organizations in producing areas has become more important.
○ It is needed to pursue a model that systematizes a value chain centered on production (the production system including farmland use, workforce use, and mechanization), distribution in producing areas (establishing APCs, nurturing distributing organizations in producing areas, etc.), and creation of value added such as the sixth industrialization (processing support, use of local products, and cooperative networking among small and medium-sized enterprises).
- Using only one strategy is not effective. Efforts for innovation are in progress in all sectors including production, processing, creation of value added, and marketing. Although there are major strategic areas, all sectors of the value chain of major products are making efforts for innovation.
○ It is important to differentiate regional leadership, and form the pivot related to trust in products in the market, the organizing of farmers, the future outlook, etc. through the leadership. It is required to review the government's leading role for major products.
- Regional diversification and the improvement of the risk management ability are important. Local governments also need various efforts.
□ Current Status and Performance of Value Added of Dry-field Farming
○ As for the value added of dry-field farming, the proportion of operating surplus is higher compared to other industries. As of 2014, operating surplus accounts for 65.8% of value added items of dry-field farming, consumption of fixed capital 20.0%, and compensation of employees 12.2%.
- The proportion of compensation of employees is very low compared to other industries. The reason is that field crops are produced mostly through self-labor or family labor.
○ As for the trends of changes in the value added of agriculture and forestry, the proportion of operating surplus has decreased gradually, while the proportion of consumption of fixed capital has been on a gradual increase.
- The reason is that value added has increased through fixed capital investment, including large agricultural tools and farming-related facilities, for a more advanced profit structure of dry-field farming since the Uruguay Round.
○ According to the result of analyzing factors that affect the level of the sales of agricultural products, producer organizations' participation has a positive effect on an increase in the sales of agricultural and livestock products.
- In particular, direct transactions of agricultural products through selling local specialties and operating direct sales stores have a positive effect on improving farms' value added by reducing distribution costs.
○ KREI local correspondents were surveyed concerning how much activities in each stage of the agricultural value chain contribute to enhancing value added.
- In the input of production factors and production, the most important activities were developing differentiated varieties and managing the safety of agricultural products. In selection, processing, packaging and distribution sectors, the respondents responded that developing processed agricultural products and increasing direct transactions of agricultural products were important. In the sales sector, the respondents answered that it is important to improve sales methods such as the Internet and direct transactions in response to changes in the distribution market. Last, in the consumption sector, the most important activity was building consumer trust through quality standardization etc.
- As for policy support activities that help to increase the value added of dry-field farming, the survey showed the highest demands for the "mechanization support project for dry-field farming" and "improvement of the production base of dry-field farming" regarding organizing farmers and scale-up.
○ The survey result on the present state of the use of agricultural brands shows that the number of the brands is 5,291 as of 2014, a 65% increase from 1999. This indicates that local governments and producer organizations have actively developed differentiated brands of agricultural products and sales strategies.
- Nevertheless, overall consumers have a low level of awareness of field crop brands except for fruits. The majority of respondents responded the reason is that they cannot tell the difference in quality between branded agricultural products and general ones. In fact, an analysis of auction price data of the Garak-dong Wholesale Market shows that the difference between auction prices of major producing areas and non-major producing areas was not statistically significant.It means that major producing areas do not have brand premiums.
□ Summary and Implications 1: Ways to Enhance Regional Competitiveness of Dry-field Farming
○ It is necessary to develop and disseminate technologies centered on field demand by uniting local governments, research institutions, and farmers' organizations from the R&D planning stage.
- To create the production base of dry-field farming, it is needed to first produce and diffuse seeds that suit regional conditions. For example, the city of Yeoju produced virus-free sweet potato seedlings jointly with the Rural Development Administration and Gyeonggi-do Agricultural Research & Extension Services, thereby saving labor and farm operating costs considerably.
○ An active and systematic support system should be established for the agricultural machine rental support policy.
- For this, it is required to consider 1) jointly using agricultural machines among farms and purchasing agricultural machines for rental that suit regional situations, 2) purchasing small agricultural machines and attachments for dry-field farming, 3) building warehouses for agricultural machines for rental, 4) purchasing equipment for managing the machines including forklifts, and 5) creating a computing system to manage agricultural machines for rental, and so on.
○ A workforce support project should be implemented so that each region can solve the problem of agricultural labor shortage autonomously.
- In Namhae-gun, Saenamhae Agricultural Cooperative is operating a garlic growing workforce support project as its own business that highlights regional characteristics. The cooperative operates a garlic farming support group; the administration covers 50% of the expenses, the cooperative 10%, and farm households 40%. Changnyeong-gun also runs a manpower bank.
○ It is necessary to develop leadership education programs for organizing farmers that enable cooperation and solidarity of various actors in each region.
- To improve the regional competitiveness of dry-field farming, regional farmers should be organized first. Whether a region has a leader who can lead organizing farmers can affect the competitiveness of dry-field farming in the region. Therefore, different regions need differentiated, diverse forms of leadership.
○ In consideration of consumption types, small packaging and simple primary processing (washing, cutting, etc.) for easy cooking and intake are necessary.
- Recently, in addition to the trend of small packaging, the sales of special offer products have increased, including mixed fruit sets and meal kits. Thus, it is required to develop fresh-cut or processed products beyond the stage of distributing original products as a commercialization strategy.
○ Maintaining freshness is an important task; for this, it is necessary to establish an online-centered distribution net of the cold chain system.
- The distribution structure of fresh food is changing from offline to online, and producers need to seek ways to use this distribution net.
○ It is needed to manage regional joint brands by enacting ordinances in cities and counties.
- Each city/county should strictly manage quality by specifying quality control standards in ordinances. Goodtrae of Buyeo-gun is a representative success case of regional brand marketing. Buyeo-gun enacted ordinances to thoroughly control the quality of Goodtrae products, and has selected actors for managing the brand. Also, farmers who participate in brand agriculture receive differentiated support.
□ Summary and Implications 2: Ways to Improve the Government-level System
○ The existing centralized R&D organizations should be dispersed to regions to enable field-based research.
- The unilinear system with dissemination and diffusion after government- led R&D has not satisfied demands for a variety of research and diffusion (dissemination and commercialization). Major developed countries (the US, Japan, and Israel) have regional research centers for research suitable for specialized regional environments. It is necessary to develop and disseminate technologies centered on field demand through the three-party solidarity of a research institution(ARO), agricultural extension (SHAHAM), and farms.
○ It is needed to introduce a seasonal foreign worker program.
- It is important to increase short-term labor supply through regional manpower banks or manpower support projects. However, it is also required to provide information to create an efficient and transparent workforce market. To this end, a seasonal foreign worker program can be considered by referring to a Swiss case.
○ For a temporary response to the Korea-China FTA, the account for improving major producing areas should be switched from the regional balance special account to the special account for rural areas.
- It is needed to avoid uniform project implementation centered on the central government, set up region-centered development plans, and select base improvement methods that suit the plans by considering the regionality of dry-field farming. Nevertheless, government-led implementation is necessary to secure stable finances. It should be understood in terms of creating production conditions of high value- added agricultural products as well as establishing the minimum farming base.
○ It is required to build a system for supporting the purchase of domestic ingredients of processed agricultural products.
- The purchase costs of domestic ingredients are higher than those of imported ingredients. To lessen the burden, the government should support exporting agricultural enterprises that process domestic ingredients. It is necessary to expand support for ingredient-purchasing funds, distribution costs for export, marketing and so on for exporting enterprises that use domestic ingredients.
○ An agricultural products quality assurance system should be established.
- The survey result shows a low level of consumer trust in domestic certification of GAP, environment-friendly products, and agricultural products traceability management, and consumer trust in local governments' quality certification systems is low. It is required to enhance the value of agricultural products and create value added by introducing a stricter quality assurance system familiar to consumers, as in France.
( 출처: ABSTRACT 11p )
목차 Contents
- 표지 ... 1
- 머 리 말 ... 2
- 요 약 ... 4
- ABSTRACT ... 11
- 목차 ... 22
- 표목차 ... 24
- 그림목차 ... 27
- 제1장 서론 ... 30
- 1. 연구의 배경 및 필요성 ... 30
- 2. 연구 목적 ... 34
- 3. 선행연구 검토 ... 34
- 4. 연구 범위 ... 39
- 5. 주요 연구내용 및 방법 ... 42
- 제2장 밭농업 관련 소비 및 트렌드 변화 분석 ... 46
- 1. 농산물 주요 소비시장 변화 ... 46
- 2. 국내 밭작물 소비 트렌드 변화 ... 49
- 3. SNS 빅데이터를 활용한 밭작물 소비자 분석 ... 55
- 4. 시사점 ... 75
- 제3장 소비 변화에 대응한 지역 단위 밭농업 대응 방식 ... 78
- 1. 주요 밭작물 생산 및 유통구조 변화 ... 78
- 2. 지역 단위의 생산 대응 방식 형태 ... 83
- 3. 사례지역 현장 조사 ... 85
- 4. 시사점 ... 116
- 제4장 밭농업 부가가치 현황과 성과 분석 ... 120
- 1. 주요 품목별 부가가치 및 수익 구조 변화 ... 120
- 2. 농산물판매액 증가에 미치는 요인 분석 ... 124
- 3. 가치사슬 관점에서의 밭농업 실태 및 애로사항 ... 130
- 4. 지역별 농산물 브랜드 현황과 성과 ... 137
- 5. 시사점 ... 144
- 제5장 요약 및 결론 ... 148
- 1. 연구결과 요약 ... 148
- 2. 결론: 정책 및 제도 개선 방안 ... 153
- 참고문헌 ... 162
- 끝페이지 ... 166
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