초록 ▼

원자력 전문인력의 현황을 검토하기 위해 원자력공학 기반 전문인력의 개념정립 및 세부분류틀을 제안하였고, 이를 토대로 전국 원자력공학과의 석박사과정 학생수를 전수조사 하였다. 원자력 전문인력의 수급전망을 분석하기 위해 선행연구를 검토하여 전문인력 수급 모델을 제시하였고, 국외 원자력 단위 발전량 대비 연구개발과 규제인력 분포 비율을 조사하였다. 또한 원자력 정책환경 변화를 고려하여 원자력 전문인력의 수급 영향요인 및 시나리오를 도출하였고, 2050년까지의 전문인력 수요예측치를 제시함으로써 원자력 전문인력의 수요를 예측하였다.
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원자력 전문인력의 현황을 검토하기 위해 원자력공학 기반 전문인력의 개념정립 및 세부분류틀을 제안하였고, 이를 토대로 전국 원자력공학과의 석박사과정 학생수를 전수조사 하였다. 원자력 전문인력의 수급전망을 분석하기 위해 선행연구를 검토하여 전문인력 수급 모델을 제시하였고, 국외 원자력 단위 발전량 대비 연구개발과 규제인력 분포 비율을 조사하였다. 또한 원자력 정책환경 변화를 고려하여 원자력 전문인력의 수급 영향요인 및 시나리오를 도출하였고, 2050년까지의 전문인력 수요예측치를 제시함으로써 원자력 전문인력의 수요를 예측하였다.

(출처 : 보고서 요약서 3p)

Abstract ▼

Ⅱ. Purpose and necessity of R&D
Stable supply and demand of nuclear energy specialists is the basis for safe and clean nuclear power generation and nuclear applications. Nuclear energy specialists are able to ensure safe operation and sustainable utilization of nuclear energy throughout the whole

Ⅱ. Purpose and necessity of R&D
Stable supply and demand of nuclear energy specialists is the basis for safe and clean nuclear power generation and nuclear applications. Nuclear energy specialists are able to ensure safe operation and sustainable utilization of nuclear energy throughout the whole cycle of nuclear power generation.
To this end, it is essential to maintain a professional knowledge of nuclear engineering education, awareness of safety, and technical expertise. Nations adopting nuclear energy have generally been involved in direct nuclear education and manpower training by the government [Kim.Y.J., et al., (2017)]. International organizations such as International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Nuclear Energy Agency in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD/NEA) are also encouraging the government to create stable supply and demand ecosystems for nuclear experts through the willingness of the government taking into account the specificity of nuclear energy. Therefore, the problem of supply and demand of nuclear energy specialists should be continuously pursued.
The importance of nuclear energy specialists is not limited to safety alone. Even if the nuclear energy policy environment is changing rapidly, securing qualified nuclear specialists is very important for not only energy security but also various policy issues related to nuclear energy. Considering whether to continue the construction of Shin-Kori units 5 and 6 (in the short term) or to build a nuclear submarine, to construct a next generation nuclear reactor, to export nuclear power plants, to develop small or middle sized reactor, policy for spent fuel management, strategy of decontaminating nuclear power plant, it is essential to secure qualified nuclear specialists.

III. Purpose and scope of R&D
Based on the above consciousness, the project was carried out with the aim of providing a stable and sustainable supply of nuclear energy specialists. Below is a detailed study.
Research project execution details
◦ Classification : 1. Reviewed of nuclear energy specialists
◦ Execution details :
- Established the concept of nuclear energy specialist and proposed a detailed classification frame
- Complete enumeration of total number of M.S. and Ph. D. courses in nuclear engineering

◦ Classification : 2. Proposed a model for the supply and demand of nuclear energy specialists
◦ Execution details :
- Proposed supplying and demanding model for nuclear energy specialists through reviewing previous research
- Surveyed external case for distribution of regulatory personnel and research development against the amount of generation in nuclear units.
◦ Note : based on nuclear power generatio n

◦ Classification : 3. Predicted nuclear energy specialists
◦ Execution details :
- Draw a influence factor for supply and demand of nuclear energy specialists considering policy environment change and scenario*
- Proposed estimated value for supply and demand during 33 years
* The scenarios presented in this study refers to government official data such as “The 5^th Nuclear Power Comprehensive Promotion Plan (2007-2021)” and “The 7^th Basic Plan of Electricity Supply and Demand” as of July 2017, but it was tried to consider recent policy uncertainty as much as possible.
This study analyzed the previous researches on the supply and demand of nuclear energy specialists at domestic and overseas, and presented some new results by adding some differences as below.
- Existing supply analysis of nuclear energy specialists was categorized only by age and gender. However, this study established a data bases that can flexibly cope with the labor market by classified databases by field and degree.
- In this study, we have developed a system dynamics analysis which was mainly used only in forecasting the demand of labor force in overseas nuclear industry. This was implemented by adding a module to build, operate and dismantle worker demand in a self-developed system dynamics model analyzing reactor and fuel cycle linkage.

Ⅳ. Methods and scope of Research
In this study, the specialists in nuclear engineering are defined as those who have received a M.S. or Ph. D.’s degree in nuclear engineering as the final degree standard in terms of supply side. In terms of demand side, they are limited to R&D and regulated part who have received a M.S. or Ph. D.’s degree in nuclear engineering. The survey on the status of workforce refers to the current status of the nuclear industry workers annually published by the National Statistical Office. For a more precise survey, however, the supply forecast of specialists was surveyed in whole-atomic engineering and master’s and doctoral course students in a bottom-up manner.
Based on the surveyed data, we confirmed the distribution of specialists by field and major. At this time, a new nuclear industry and R&D classification table is presented. This is because the existing classification is a mixture of classification by academic field and application field, and it is difficult to distinguish clearly by classification in terms of labor supply and demand. Therefore, this study judge that the subdivision of supply side is proper classification by academic field. There are six categories of Reactor Physics, Thermal Hydraulics, Radiation, Nuclear Materials, Detection Control, and Nuclear Chemistry. The demand side subdivision is somewhat broadly divided into R&D and regulated workforce, but includes a qualitative discussion on the subdivision of the application field where the demand is rapidly increasing compared to the previous one.
We applied a previous research model based on nuclear power generation until 2050, using the top-down manner to forecast demand for nuclear energy specialists. The baseline scenario is the 7^th Basic Plan for the Supply and Demand of Electricity, which is the time to prepare the 5^th Nuclear Comprehensive Promotion Plan. We compared three scenarios that is without additional new nuclear power plant construction, additional new nuclear power plant construction to replace the existing nuclear power plant after shutdown and baseline scenario.
Scenarios that do not have a new nuclear power plants will lose at least 3,000 ~ 17,000 jobs per year until 2030 compared to scenarios based on the 7^th Basic Plan for the Supply and Demand of Electricity. Scenarios that do not have a new nuclear power plants will lose at least 5,000 to 40,000 jobs per year compared to scenarios in which additional new nuclear power plant construction to replace the existing nulcear power plant after shutdown. Therefore, there is a high possibility that supply and demand will be unbalanced. In addition, it is necessary to assess and prepare for impacts on safety, eco-friendliness, and energy security that may result from the loss of qualified personnel. It is very important to manage the quality of new specialists due to a rapid drop in the demand for human resources and to transfer know-how of retired specialists.
This model, which predicts the future based on past performance statistics, has the following limitations.
- The coefficients of the prediction model have inaccurate errors.
- Inaccurate for the far future
- Changes in the research field require additional qualitative consideration
- Rapid nuclear policy changes are difficult to predict
Demand of nuclear industry human resource is classified into nuclear power plant design, construction, operation and dismantling. For a long-term perspective, the demand of industrial human resources for spent nuclear fuel management needs to be reflected. Scenario with no additional new nuclear power plant construction, which is the baseline scenario, showed 34.83%(144,514 workers) of human resource decline by 2030 based on the required human resource by nuclear energy sector as proposed by IAEA. Concretely, the construction worker decreased by 49.65%, the operating worker decreased by 5.97%, and the dismantling workforce was the same. Demand for dismantling workforce did not increase or decrease, so total workforce demand decreased significantly. From 2031 to 2050, 19.74%(37,200 workers) of human resource demand declined based on the required workers by nuclear energy sector as proposed by IAEA. Concretely, no construction worker was needed, and the number of worker required for operation decreased by 31.17%. Based on the worker required for the construction and operation of APR-1400 in Korea, 38.64%(111,177 workers) of human resource demand declined until 2030. In detail, the construction worker decreased by 49.80%, the operating worker decreased by 5.97%, and the dismantling workforce was the same. Demand for dismantling workforce did not increase or decrease, so total workforce demand decreased significantly. From 2031 to 2050, 22.09%(19,800 workers) showed a decrease in demand. In detail, no construction worker was needed, and 31.17% of worker required for operation decreased. There was no change in worker for decontamination.
The following is the comparison between scenarios without new additional nuclear power plants and scenarios that build new nuclear power plants and build more nuclear power plants. Based on the workforce proposed by IAEA, the demand for worker decreased by 69.98%(327,569 workers) by 2030. In detail, the construction worker decreased by 73.84%, the operating worker decreased by 26.08%, and the dismantling workforce was the same. Demand for dismantling workforce did not increase of decrease, so total workforce demand decreased significantly. From 2031 to 2050, 69.84%(161,711 workers) of workforce demand declined. Concretely, construction worker decreased by 100% and worker required for operation decreased by 58.79%.

(출처 : SUMMARY 10p)

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1
• 제 출 문 ... 2
• 보고서 요약서 ... 3
• 요 약 문 ... 4
• SUMMARY ... 10
• CONTENTS ... 16
• 목차 ... 17
• 제1장 연구개발과제의 개요 ... 18
• 제2장 국내외 전문인력 수급분석 사례 ... 20
• 제1절 국내 전문인력 수급분석 사례 ... 20
• 제2절 국외 전문인력 수급분석 사례 ... 22
• 제3장 국내 원자력 전문인력 공급 ... 28
• 제1절 원자력 전문인력공급 세분류 정의 ... 28
• 제2절 국내 전문인력 공급 현황 ... 30
• 제4장 원자력 전문인력 수요 ... 32
• 제1절 원자력 전문인력 수요 시나리오 ... 32
• 제2절 원자력 전문인력 수요모형 및 분석 결과 ... 33
• 제3절 원자력 산업 전문인력 수요 추정 ... 44
• 제4절 원자력 산업 전문인력 수요 시나리오 및 예측결과 ... 59
• 제5장 연구개발결과의 활용계획 ... 64
• 제1절 원자력 인력양성 전략 ... 65
• 제2절 후속연구를 위한 인력수급 예측 고려사항 ... 66
• 제6장 참고문헌 ... 67
• 끝페이지 ... 71