초록 ▼

○ 연구목표
- 목표 : 동·서남극의 서로 다른 기후변화에 대한 대기의 역할 규명

○ 연구내용
- 외부강제력* 변화에 대한 남극의 기후변화 요소 반응 기작 규명
ㆍ최근 남반구 대기순환장 변화가 남극 해빙 및 기온의 지역차이에 미치는 영향 파악
ㆍ남극 기후변화 이해를 위한 남극 서풍 제트기류의 세기 및 위치 변화 파악
* 외부강제력: 공전궤도인자, 대기 이산화탄소 농도, 메탄농도, 해빙, 육빙, 해양 수온 등 기후변화에 영향을 주는 외부 요인
- 관측 및 종관규모 수치모델을 활용한 남극 태

○ 연구목표
- 목표 : 동·서남극의 서로 다른 기후변화에 대한 대기의 역할 규명

○ 연구내용
- 외부강제력* 변화에 대한 남극의 기후변화 요소 반응 기작 규명
ㆍ최근 남반구 대기순환장 변화가 남극 해빙 및 기온의 지역차이에 미치는 영향 파악
ㆍ남극 기후변화 이해를 위한 남극 서풍 제트기류의 세기 및 위치 변화 파악
* 외부강제력: 공전궤도인자, 대기 이산화탄소 농도, 메탄농도, 해빙, 육빙, 해양 수온 등 기후변화에 영향을 주는 외부 요인
- 관측 및 종관규모 수치모델을 활용한 남극 태평양권 대기과정 특성 파악
ㆍ수치모델링을 통한 남극 과학기지 주변 중규모 기상장 특성 파악
ㆍ관측소 관측 기반 기후요소 장기 추세 분석 및 큰 규모 대기과정의 역할 이해
ㆍ 남극기지 기반 수치 모델 활용을 위한 관측과 DB 구축
- 생물기원냉각물질 (에어로졸 중 복사 냉각에 기여하는 것) 변화와 남극 세종기지 대기입자의 상관성 파악
ㆍ 현장관측 기반 생물기원냉각물질, 에어로졸 및 구름응결핵 특성 변화 파악
ㆍ서남극의 온난화가 생물기원 냉각물질 및 에어로졸 형성에 미치는 영향 파악

○ 연구개발 결과: 최종성과물
- 동·서남극의 기후변화 분포도
․기상 및 대기환경 실측 자료
․남극 지역 수치모델 모사 자료
- 동·서남극 기후변화 차이를 유발하는 대기 순환 개념 모델

○ 연구개발결과의 활용 계획
- 남극의 최근 기후변화에 따른 해빙분포 및 기온 변화의 지역적 차이 원인 파악을 통한 미래 남극 육상 빙하 융빙, 해빙변화와 온난화 패턴 예측에 활용
- 남극기지 기반 현장 활동을 위한 상세 기상 정보 제공
- 남극 생물기원냉각물질의 발생 변화가 대기 에어로졸 입자 형성 및 복사강제력에 미치는 영향 이해를 통한 미래 남극 기후변화 예측에 기여

(출처 : 초록 5p)

Abstract ▼

Ⅳ. Outcome of the study
(1) Understanding the mechanism of Antarctic climate change to change in external forcings
- Understand the effects of changes in atmospheric circulations around Antarctica on regional variations in Antarctic sea ice
∙A statistical model was constructed using 5 reana

Ⅳ. Outcome of the study
(1) Understanding the mechanism of Antarctic climate change to change in external forcings
- Understand the effects of changes in atmospheric circulations around Antarctica on regional variations in Antarctic sea ice
∙A statistical model was constructed using 5 reanalysis datasets of JRA-55, ERA-40, NCEP R1, ERA-20C, and NCEP 20th and three observation datasets of CRUTEM4, HadSLP2, and HadSST3 to restore the long-term change in the Amundsen Low.
∙The statistical model shows that the Amundsen Low strengthened during the last hundred years, especially during austral spring.
∙Since 1979, during summer and autumn, the sea ice in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas has decreased, and the sea ice in the Weddell and Ross Seas has increased. In contrast, during winter and spring, sea ice tends to decline around the Antarctic Peninsula, while sea ice in other regions tends to increase. These changes in sea ice are related seasonally and regionally to the Southern Annular Mode, the Amundsen Sea Low, and Pacific-South America Mode 2.
- Understanding the change in strength and position of the Southern hemisphere westerlies during the last glacial maximum
∙The seven climate models in PMIP3 show that tropospheric temperature decreases, and stratospheric temperature increases in the southern hemisphere during the last glacial maximum. In the southern hemisphere westerlies, the movement to southward is commonly observed in the stratosphere, but no consistent changes appear in the troposphere among the models.
∙Sensitivity experiments for the last glacial maximum period using the atmospheric general circulation model show that the expansion of sea ice around Antarctica, an increase in Antarctic ice sheet elevation, and a decrease in equatorial sea surface temperature cause strengthening and poleward movement of the southern hemisphere westerlies. The expansion of sea ice around Antarctica is the major cause of the southern hemisphere westerlies in the troposphere.
∙The experiments for the last glacial maximum using the atmosphere-ocean coupled model show that the strengthening of southern hemisphere westerlies and Antarctic circumpolar current might be induced by expansion of the Antarctic sea ice.
∙The sensitivity experiments using the atmospheric general circulation model show that the increase in the equator-to-pole surface temperature gradient due to the expansion of sea ice around Antarctica induces an increase in atmospheric thickness over the sea ice increased region. Consequently, the southern hemisphere westerlies strengthen and move to the pole.
- Investigation for the cause of east-west different climate responses in Antarctica
∙Empirical orthogonal function analysis of Antarctic surface temperature reconstruction data for the period 1958–2012 reveals the first mode in which temperature increases over entire Antarctica, and the second mode in which the temperature varies oppositely between the West Antarctic-Antarctic Peninsula (warming) and East Antarctica (cooling). Besides, the corresponding principal components of both modes have increased during this period.
∙Multi-model results of historical simulation in CMIP5 consistently have these two observed modes. However, there is no tendency to increase in the second mode in contrast to the increase in the first mode for the period 1958–2012.
∙The EOF analyses of ice core-based surface temperature reconstruction data and climate model simulations longer than 5,000 years since mid-Holocene (6k BP) consistently show these two climatic modes. The first mode representing the entire Antarctica temperature change reflects radiatively-induced global climate change, while the second mode representing west-east asymmetry shows no long-term trend.
∙According to the Antarctic topography, an increase in sea surface temperature, strengthening of the barotropic high pressure, and strengthening of warm advection in the lower troposphere over the west Antarctic region can induce the natural variability representing west-east asymmetry by promoting each other process.

(2) Characterization of the atmosphere processes in the Pacific sector of Antarctica through in-situ observation and synoptic scale numerical simulations
- Establishment of the meteorological data database at the pacific sector of Antarctica
∙Meteorological variables were continuously measured and built on data-bases at the King Sejong and the Jang Bogo stations from 2017 to 2019.
∙Thirty years of meteorological data of the King Sejong Station was gone through consistent quality check procedure and gap-filled for long-term trend analysis.
∙The measured variables showed high inter-annual variability, particularly in winter seasons at the three sites including Lindsey Islands, Amundsen sea.
∙The variations in winds at five levels showed that they were separated into two groups based on monthly resultant wind direction, one group for wind at 3 and 30 m and the other from wind at 6, 12, and 20 m.
∙Based on the radio sonde measurements, profiles of temperature and wind speed showed the largest interannual variability in spring.
∙In July 2019, there was a distinct temperature rise of around 3 kilometers altitude, along with strong winds, which was not seen in other years. Meanwhile, July 2019 marked the highest temperature among July during the analysis period.
∙The seasonal correlation coefficients of monthly averaged temperature (T) and pressure (P) between Lindsey Islands and three neighboring automatic weather station sites in the coastal area, Amundsen Sea were >0.8 for T and >0.92 for P and up to 0.76 for P and 0.72 for T at an inland site.
- Trends of meteorological variables in the Pacific sector of Antarctica
∙At the Jang Bogo station, the measured data showed significant trends in annual averaged temperature from 2015 to 2019 (p < 0.05), which mainly depended on the variations in autumn and winter temperature.
∙The ERA‐Interim reanalysis data showed no significant trends in seasonal averaged temperature from 1980 to 2014, but significant trends were shown in pressure and wind speed in autumn (p < 0.05) at the Amundsen Sea coast even though the interpretation of the trend requires caution
∙The longitudinal shift of the center of the Amundsen Sea Low contributed to the large variability and resulted in much lower temperatures at the site, especially in winter seasons, through cold advection from the south.
- Relationship between total ozone concentration and ambient meteorological factors
∙Long-term patterns of Total Ozone concentration (TOC) showed the large year-to-year variation (e.g., maximumly ∼200 DU at King Sejong) but a steady recovering trend recently.
∙The TOC pattern correlated well with air temperature but showed a vertical difference; high positive correlations appeared in the lower stratosphere showing enhanced ozone depletion in colder conditions, but negative correlations appeared in the upper stratosphere associated with the temperature dependence of ozone chemistry.
∙The TOC also showed a relationship to the potential vorticity: high positive correlation in the upper stratosphere during the austral spring but a moderately negative correlation in the lower stratosphere during the austral summer. This peculiar pattern probably relates to the polar vortex intensification in the stratosphere and the stratosphere-troposphere airmass exchange near the tropopause.
∙There were also some correlations with wind field showing air-mass mixing effects.
- Measurement of atmospheric Radon concentration at the Antarctic stations and analysis of the variability
∙ Atmospheric Rn gas has been measured preperly at Antarctic stations during observation period except for the construction period of new research building of King Sejong Station and blizzard conditions. The concentrations of Rn at King Sejong Station and Jang Bogo Station were mainly affected by Southern Ocean and ice free area of Victoria Land of Antarctica, respectively. Rn storm cases were just observed sometimes at King Sejong Station. The concentrations of Rn gas at Jang Bogo Station are estimated to be highest level in Antarctica. The concentration variations of Rn gas at Jang Bogo Station varied according to concentrations. The concentrations of Rn gas higher than 90 percentiles were generally higher during summer. but their concentrations lower than 10 percentiles are generally higher during fall.
- Analysis of the weather phenomenon around the Antarctic stations using regional-scale numerical model
∙ A high-resolution numerical modeling system was installed with 27-, 9-, and 3-km resolution around the Antarctic stations.
∙ Synoptic mechanism was analyzed for a strong wind event of the King Sejong Station on January of 2013 using the regional scale numerical simulation and showed that topographic effect of the Antarctic Peninsula together with synoptic pressure system.

(3) Correlation Analysis of Bio-source Cooling Material and Atmospheric Participants
- Time Series Variation of Physicochemical Properties of Antarctic Atmospheric Aerosols
∙ Securing continuous data through efficient operation of aerosol-specific continuous observation equipment in Sejong Station
∙ Seasonal Characterization of Nano-particle Formation
- Correlation Analysis of Bio-source Cooling Material and Atmospheric Participants
∙ Observation of Changes in Atmospheric DMS Concentration Based on Antarctic King Sejong Science Base and Correlation Analysis of Marine Life
∙ Correlation Analysis of Changes in Atmospheric DMS Concentration with Aerosol Physical Properties and Meteorological Parameters대기 DMS

(출처 : SUMMARY 24p)

목차 Contents

• 표지 ... 1제 출 문 ... 3보고서 초록 ... 5요 약 문 ... 6S U M M A R Y ... 18C O N T E N T S ... 34목차 ... 35제 1 장 서론 ... 36 1.1 배경 및 필요성 ... 38 1.2 목적 및 연구 범위 ... 51제 2 장 국내외 기술개발 현황 ... 56 2.1 국내 기술개발 현황 ... 58 2.2 국외 기술개발 현황 ... 61제 3 장 연구개발 수행 내용 및 결과 ... 68 3.1 외부강제력 변화에 대한 남극의 기후변화 요소 반응 기작 이해 ... 70 3.2 관측자료와 종관규모 수치모델을 활용한 남극 태평양권 대기흐름 특성 파악 고도화 ... 171 3.3 생물기원냉각물질 변화와 남극 세종기지 대기입자의 상관성 분석 ... 296제 4 장 연구개발 목표 달성도 및 대외 기여도 ... 378 4.1 총괄 목표 달성 내용 ... 380 4.2 연차별 연구개발 목표 및 달성도 ... 381 4.3 대외 기여도 ... 385제 5 장 기술개발 결과 활용계획 ... 388 5.1 향후 연구 방향 ... 390 5.2 성과 활용 계획 ... 391제 6 장 참고문헌 ... 394끝페이지 ... 411