[논문]Simulation of Grape Downy Mildew Development Across Geographic Areas Based on Mesoscale Weather Data Using Supercomputer

Kim, Kyu-Rang; Seem, Robert C.; Park, Eun-Woo; Zack, John W.; Magarey, Roger D.

doi:10.5423/ppj.2005.21.2.111

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Weather data for disease forecasts are usually derived from automated weather stations (AWS) that may be dispersed across a region in an irregular pattern. We have developed an alternative method to simulate local scale, high-resolution weather and plant disease in a grid pattern. The system incorpo...

Weather data for disease forecasts are usually derived from automated weather stations (AWS) that may be dispersed across a region in an irregular pattern. We have developed an alternative method to simulate local scale, high-resolution weather and plant disease in a grid pattern. The system incorporates a simplified mesoscale boundary layer model, LAWSS, for estimating local conditions such as air temperature and relative humidity. It also integrates special models for estimating of surface wetness duration and disease forecasts, such as the grapevine downy mildew forecast model, DMCast. The system can recreate weather forecasts utilizing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database, which contains over 57 years of archived and corrected global upper air conditions. The highest horizontal resolution of 0.150 km was achieved by running 5-step nested child grids inside coarse mother grids. Over the Finger Lakes and Chautauqua Lake regions of New York State, the system simulated three growing seasons for estimating the risk of grape downy mildew with 1 km resolution. Outputs were represented as regional maps or as site-specific graphs. The highest resolutions were achieved over North America, but the system is functional for any global location. The system is expected to be a powerful tool for site selection and reanalysis of historical plant disease epidemics.

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Therefore, a robust data management and presentation routines would be needed for a local scale plant disease simulation system. Seasonal disease forecasting witfi high-resolution hourly weather data and regional mapping of infection risks were the challenging subjects of this study.

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It retained the relatively sophisticated Surface Energy Budget, Radiation, Planetary Boundary Layer and Hydrology (SRPH) model currently used in MASS. It accounted for the four most important factors in determining nighttime temperatures in agricultural fields: (1) radiation co_이ing, (2) turbulent mixing, (3) down slope flow of radiatively cooled air, and (4) the effects of nonuniform surface properties (i.e. variations in vegetative cover, bodies of water, etc.) on heating and cooling rates. The LAWSS model was designed to optimize the sim_니l&tion of the ground and near surface conditions important to agriculture.
Hours needed to complete one domain area of a 24-hour segment increased significantly as the horizontal resolution increased because of the shorter time steps and increasing number of grid cells. On the supercomputer, nested independent jobs were run in parallel so that it was able to complete a 24-hour simulation at 0.150 km resolution in 5 days. It still required so much time to complete the 62-day simulation per year for three years at its maximum resolution.
5 CWA represents half of the canopy is wet at the time of the model calculation. Since WP and CWA are different measures of leaf wetness that caimot be directly compared, and there is no rainfall input for the SWEB model, criteria were set up for the comparison of the wetness and DMrisk variables. The agreement ratios on wetness and DMrisk from the AWS observation and the prediction by simulation model were compared for non-rainy days (32 days for Geneva and 37 days for Fredonia) as well as for the entire season.
1). The system included several key features such as (1) managing domain areas in hierarchical 5-level nested grids to use the output of parent (coarser) grids as the input for child (finer) grids (Fig. 2);(2) splitting the time domain into 24- or 12- or 6-hour segments depending on the grid level so that one segment can be finished within the runtime limit of 24 hours per job; and (3) sequentially arranged jobs based on parent-child relationships of grid levels and time segments within a grid level. Multiple jobs at the same grid level and time segment were independent of each other and launched in parallel.

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To demonstrate the differences of favorable and unfevorable weather conditions for infection, we chose three years: 1987, 1994 and 2003 for unfavorable, favorable and ordinaiy years, respectively, for disease development. Active growing seasons of June 15 to August 15 each year were selected to run the model. Daily DMW was set to 1 if there was any hour with DMW in a day.
For each test case of the model for tiie Finger Lakes region, initial runs of the LAWSS model were made at a 9 km horizontal resolution for a 656, 100 km2 domain (Grid-A: 90 x 90 grid cells), which included the entire State of New York with the Finger Lakes region in the middle of the domain. Subsequent runs were nested inside their parent domains.
This research was conducted using the reso_니rces of the Cornell Theory Center, which receives funding from Cornell University, New York State, federal agencies, foundations, and corporate partners. This study was partially supported by a USDA/NRI Competitive Grant No.

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x operating system, has been described in detail elsewhere (MESO, 1999). It was created by simplifying the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS; Kaplan et al., 1982; MESO, 1995; Manobianco et al., 1996) into a single layer model using many of the approximations and assumptions employed by Mass and Dempsey (1985). It simplified the representation of processes that are usually unimportant in determining surface temperature (especially in nocturnal clear sky, light winds scenarios) such as the parameterization of grid-scale precipitation processes and c_나mulus convections.

참고문헌 (16)

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Johnson, L. F., Roczen, D. E., Youkhana, S. K., Nemani, R. R. and Bosch, D. F. 2003. Mapping vineyard leaf area with multispectral satellite imagery. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 38:33-44

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Kaplan, M. L., Zack, J. W, Wong, V. C. and Tuccillo, J. J. 1982. Initial results from a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system and comparisons with an AVE-SESAME I data set. Mon. Wea. Rev. 110: 1564-1590

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Manobianco, J., Zack, J. W. and Taylor, G. E. 1996. Workstationbased real-time mesoscale modeling designed for weather support to operations at the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 77:653-672

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Magarey, R. D., 1999. A theoretical standard for the estimation of surface wetness duration in grape. Ph.D. thesis, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
Magarey, R. D., Russo, J. M., Seem, R. C. and Gadoury, D. M. 2005. Surface wetness duration under controlled environmental conditions. Agric. For. Metrol. 128:111-122

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Magarey, R. D., Seem, R. C. and Zack, J. W. 2000. A Local-area Agricultural Weather Simulation System (LAWSS), for environmental risk assessment. GIS/EM 4:47
Magarey, R. D., Seem, R. C., Russo, J. M., Zack, J. W., Waight, K. T., Travis, J. W. and Oudemans, P. V. 2001. Site-specific weather information without on-site sensors. Plant Dis. 85:1216-1226

상세보기
Mass, C. F. and Dempsey, D. P. 1985. A one-level, mesoscale model for diagnosing surface winds in mountainous and coastal regions. Mon. Wea. Rev. 113: 1211-1227

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MESO. 1995. MASS version 5.6 Reference Manual. 118pp. [Available from MESO, Inc., 185 Jordan Road, Troy, NY 12180]
MESO. 1999. LAWSS Users Guide. 37pp. [Available from MESO, Inc., 185 Jordan Road, Troy, NY 12180]
Oke, T. R. 1987. Boundary layer climates. Routledge, London. 435 pp
Park, E. W, Seem, R. C. Gadoury, D. M. and Pearson, R. C. 1997. DMCAST: a prediction model for grape downy mildew development. Vitic. Enol. Sci. 52:182-189

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Simulation of Grape Downy Mildew Development Across Geographic Areas Based on Mesoscale Weather Data Using Supercomputer 원문보기

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