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In this paper the cargo transportation were forecasted for the North Port in Busan through time series models. The cargo transportation were classified into three large groups; container, oil, general cargo. The seasonal indexes of existing cargo transportation were firstly calculated, and optimum m...

In this paper the cargo transportation were forecasted for the North Port in Busan through time series models. The cargo transportation were classified into three large groups; container, oil, general cargo. The seasonal indexes of existing cargo transportation were firstly calculated, and optimum models were chosen among exponential smoothing models and ARIMA models. The monthly cargo transportation were forecasted with applying the seasonal index in annual cargo transportation expected from the models. Thus, the cargo transportation in 2011 and 2015 were forecasted about 22,900 myriad ton and 24,654 myriad ton respectively. It was estimated that container cargo volume would play the role of locomotive in the increase of the future cargo transportation. On the other hand, the oil and general cargo have little influence upon it.

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