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NTIS 바로가기산업공학 = IE Interfaces, v.23 no.4, 2010년, pp.337 - 348
The Bass model is the most widely used model in research of new product diffusion because it presents a nice explanation on the diffusion process of new products. However, it has a limitation that its performance of fitness is lower as the available data become less and also, the diffusion curve is ...
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핵심어 | 질문 | 논문에서 추출한 답변 |
---|---|---|
Bass모형의 핵심적인 두 가정은? | (a) 신제품을 선택하는 데에 있어, 각 개인은 외부적인 영향과 내부적 영향을 받아 신제품을 채택하며, 이들 영향을 나타내는 계수를 각각 p와 q로 표기하기로 한다. (b) 아직 신제품을 채택하지 않은 개인이 신제품을 채택할 가능성은 p와 q에 선형적인 관계에 있고, 내부적인 영향은 기존 채택자와의 접촉에 의해 형성되며, 기존 채택자를 접촉할 확률은 기존채택자수를 잠재수요로 나눈 값이다. | |
Bass모형의 장단점은? | 한편, Bass모형은 설명력이 뛰어나다는 장점을 지니고 있는 반면에 모수추정에 사용되는 데이터의 개수가 적을 경우에 모수추정의 불안정성을 보인다는 단점을 지니고 있고 또한 데이터에 대한 모형의 적합도 측면에서 로지스틱 모형보다 떨어지는 단점을 지니고 있다(Meade and Islam, 1998). 전자의 단점은 최근 유전자 알고리즘을 적용한 모수추정법으로 어느 정도 해결되고 있다(Rajkumar et al. | |
신제품이나 서비스의 확산과정을 설명하는 모형들 중, 적합도가 우수한 모형들은? | , 2002). 이들 모형 중 실제 데이터에 대한 모형의 적합도는 로지스틱 모형이 가장 우수하다(Meade and Islam, 1998). 그러나 신제품 및 서비스의 단순 수요예측을 넘어 수요의 확산과정에 대한 분석을 위한 목적으로는 Bass모형이 가장 널리 활용된다(Mahajan et al., 1990; Ozkaya, 2008). |
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