[논문]아세안 국가들의 청정개발체제 사업에 대한 성과 분석

마이클 그라가신; 고순철

doi:10.12653/jecd.2012.19.1.147

아세안 국가들의 청정개발체제 사업에 대한 성과 분석
Performance of the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) Projects of the Asean Countries 원문보기

농촌지도와 개발 = Journal of agricultural extension & community development, v.19 no.1, 2012년, pp.147 - 178

마이클 그라가신 (Philippine Center for Postharvest Development and Mechanization, Department of Agriculture(DA-PhilMech)) , 고순철 (Dep't of Regional Development, Hyupsung University)

초록
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청정개발체제(CDM)는 1997년 교토의정서(Kyoto protocol)를 통해 확립된 온실가스 배출과 관련된 선진국과 개도국 간 협력 기제의 하나이다. 청정개발체제는 기본적으로 선진국의 정부 또는 민간조직이 개도국에서 배출감축 프로젝트를 수행하고, CER(Certified Emission Reduction)의 형태로 배출권을 얻는 것을 허용하고, CER을 자국의 배출감축목표 달성을 위해 사용할 수 있도록 하고 있다. 이 연구의 목적은 아세안 국가들의 청정개발 메커니즘의 성취도를 알아보는데 있으며, 자료는 2010년 10월 15일 현재 유엔기후변화기본협약(UNFCCC)에 등록된 254개 청정개발체제 사업을 대상으로 분석하였다. 이 연구의 결과, 전체 254개 사업 중 20%만이 탄소배출권을 받은 것으로 나타났으며, 실제 탄소배출권의 총량은 650만 톤이지만, 이는 전체 사업계획서에 반영된 양의 15%에 불과한 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 아세안 국가의 CDM사업과 관련된 장애 요인으로서는 (1) 사업 등록과 탄소배출권 승인 간 시간 격차가 존재하고, (2) 사업계획과 실제 승인량에 차이가 나타나며, (3) 특히 소규모 사업의 경우 높은 거래 비용 때문에 등록 후 배출승인을 신청하지 않고 있는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 이러한 연구결과는 아세안국가들이 CDM사업을 수행하는 데 있어서 선진국들의 주요 파트너가 되고 있지만, 실제로 사업을 통한 탄소배출량은 제한적일 수 있음을 의미한다. 따라서 일부 아세안 국가에서 교토의정서에 따라 자체적으로 탄소배출감축을 시도하고 있음을 고려할 때, 자체적인 CDM의 성공적인 경영, 수행, 운영을 위해 더 많은 선진국들의 협력과 지원이 주어질 필요가 있다.

주제어

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문제 정의

In particular, the Shazam (Version 10), a comprehensive econometrics and statistics package software, has been used for the Probit regression analysis. The frequency distribution and the Probit regression analyses were undertaken in order to test the objectives of this study.

제안 방법

Using a database of 254 projects registered at the UNFCCC as of October 15, 2010, this research has examined the performance of CDM registered projects of ASEAN countries since the start of Kyoto Protocol in 2004 and as it approaches its end in 2012.

대상 데이터

Table 5 shows the composition of the study sample per type of project. As manifested in the table, biogas and biomass composed more than half of the total study sample with 114 and 42 projects, respectively.
The data used in the analysis were taken from the databases compiled by the CDM Secretariat of the UNFCCC as well as the database of the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) which are both accessible at their respective websites. The total number of study samples has reached 254.

성능/효과

Actual CERs verified and issued by the CDM-EB did not always agree with what has been written in the project design document. For the 20 registered projects that already received CER credits, the average performance rate was only 66%, based on the comparison of the actual CER issued and approved by UNFCCC and the annual estimated CER credit written in the project design documents.
Malaysia has the most number of study samples being the country with most number of CDM registered projects while Singapore and Laos have the least with one project each. Of the total 254 data sets, 71% of which was categorized by UNFCCC as small scale CDM project activity (SSC). UNFCCC has defined small scale CDM project activity as those renewable project activities with a maximum output capacity of up to 15 megawatts (or an appropriate equivalent); energy efficiency improvement project activities which reduce energy consumption, on the supply and/or demand side, by up to the equivalent of 15 gigawatts-hours (GWh) per year; and, other project activities that both reduce anthropogenic emissions by sources and directly emit less than 15 kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually.
To underscore this point, we investigated the involved transaction costs of CDM projects during project implementation and operation that includes project monitoring, verification and certification, broker’s fee, adaptation levy and insurance fee. The hypothetical estimation of transaction cost at varying type of CDM projects was based on the expected annual emission reduction of 20,000 tCO₂e/yr, 60,000 tCO₂e/yr, and 120,000 tCO₂e/yr.
For the purpose of this analysis, the lead time has been estimated during project implementation (from the first day of public hearing to the actual date of registration), and during project operation, (from project registration to the issuance of the first CER credit) for all projects that already earned CER credits. The result of our estimation showed that on the average, the CDM projects of the ASEAN countries have taken around 426 days and 1,355 days to complete the requirements during project implementation and project operation, respectively, or a total of 1,781 days (4.9 yrs) before the project has started to receive CER credits. As highlighted from this result and as illustrated in Table 6, it can be deduced that the bulk of work associated in the implementation and operation of CDM projects actually took place after registration.
The results of our estimation show that the coefficient of Biogas variable is negative and significant. The results of our analysis thus statistically confirmed our earlier findings that Biogas was likely at the disadvantage position of getting CER credit at the moment because majority of this kind of projects are basically small.
The results of our estimation show that the transaction cost of small CDM project with annual CER credit of 40,000 tCO₂e/yr was US$3.57 per unit of CER while large project with annual CER credit of 200,000 tCO₂e/yr had a transaction cost of US$1.24 per unit of CER (Table 9). It can be deduced that the proponents of small CDM projects have to accumulate enough CER credits before they will apply for CER credit to significantly compensate the high transaction costs during project implementation and operation.
The results of the Probit regression analysis show that the coefficient of project scale variable concerning large CDM project is positive and significant. The results suggest that large CDM projects could likely get CER credit than small projects.

참고문헌 (16)

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IGES. (2010). Towards CDM reform. Report of the IGES CDM Capacity Building Kyoto General Meeting. Kanagawa, Japan. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies(IGES).
Lloyd, B., & Subbarao S. (2008). Development Challenges Under the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM)-Can Renewable Energy Initiatives be Put in Place Before Peak Oil. Energy Policy, 37, 237-245.
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Michaelowa, A. (2007b). Unilateral CDM-Can Developing Countries Finance Generation Of Greenhouse Gas Emission Credits On Their Own?. International Environmental Agreements, 7(18), 17-34.

상세보기
Michaelowa, A., & Stonzik M. (2002). Transaction Costs of the Kyoto Mechanism. Discussion Paper. Hamburgisches Welt-Wrtschafts-Archiv(HWWA).
Olmstead, S., & Stavins, R. (2010). Three Key Elements of Post-2012 International Climate Policy Architect. Discussion Paper. Harvard Project on International Climate Agreement. Washington DC.
Scheba, A. (2010). The Clean Development Mechanism: Sustainable Development Through Carbon Trading? An Analysis with a South African Case Study. VDM Verlag Dr. Muller Publishing.
UNFCCC. Draft Decision CP-15. Outcome of the Work of AdHoc Working Group on Long Term Cooperative Action Under the Convention. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/.../107.pd
UNFCCC. Guidelines for Completing the Forms for Submission of Bundled Small-Scale CDM Projects Activities(F-CDM-SSC-Bundle). Online. Internet download. http://cdm.unfccc.int/EB/021/ Feb21repan21.pdf
World Bank. (2010a). Clean Development Mechanism In China: Five Years Of Experience (2004-09). Washington DC, World Bank.
World Bank. (2010b). 10 Years of Experience in Carbon Finance: Insights From Working With the Kyoto Mechanisms. Washington DC, World Bank.
http://www.iges.or.jp/en/cdm/report.html
http://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/index.html
http://cdm.unfccc.int/Issuance/index.html
http://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/projsearch.html

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