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NTIS 바로가기Journal of Korea Water Resources Association = 한국수자원학회논문집, v.46 no.1, 2013년, pp.59 - 71
권현한 (전북대학교 토목공학과, 방재연구센터) , 김장경 (전북대학교 토목공학과, 방재연구센터) , 박세훈 (한국시설안전공단 상하수도팀)
The lack of sufficient flood data being kept across Korea has made it difficult to assess reliable estimates of the design flood while relatively sufficient rainfall data are available. In this regard, a rainfall simulation based derivation technique of flood frequency curve has been proposed in som...
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핵심어 | 질문 | 논문에서 추출한 답변 |
---|---|---|
Bayesian 방법이란? | 그러나 불확실성을 정량화하는 것은 통계학에서도 쉽지 않은 연구 분야로서 가장 진보된 불확실성 해석 방법으로는 Bayesian 방법이 컴퓨터의 발전과 더불어 많은 학문 분야에서 이용되고 있다. 특히, Bayesian 방법은 매개변수의 추정과 불확실성을 동시에 수행할 수 있는 방법으로서 추정되는 매개변수들이 사후분포(posterior distribution)로 귀결되어 최종적으로 확률분포형의 형태를 갖게 된다. 이러한 점에서 본 연구의 목적은 앞서 언급된 극치강수량 재현기법, Bayesian 강우유출 모형 기반의 불확실성 평가기법 등을 연계한 홍수빈도곡선 유도 기법을 개발하고자 한다. | |
Monte-Carlo Simulation 기법의 단점은? | , 2002). 이러한 경우 강우-유출 관계에 대한 불확실성을 효과적으로 고려하지 못하는 단점이 있다. 이밖에도 강우의 모의발생시 관측 범위 내에 존재하는 강우의 내삽 (interpolation) 시에는 큰 문제가 발생하지 않으나 관측 범위를 벗어나는 극치값에 대해서는 과소 또는 과대 추정되는 문제점이 존재한다. | |
홍수량은 불확실성 분석을 고려한 해석이 필요한 이유는? | 이는 입력된 강우의 빈도와 홍수의 빈도가 동일하다고 가정하는 것으로서 불확실성이 상당히 내포되어 있다. 즉, 홍수량은 다양한 수문학적 과정에 의해서 이루어지며 동일한 강우량일지라도 토양함수, 강우강도 등에 따라서 상당히 다른 유출 특성을 나타내기 때문에 불확실성 분석을 고려한 해석이 필요하다. |
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