[논문]우리나라 미래의 논 벼 생산량과 관개요구량 모델링

은코모제피 템바; 정상옥

doi:10.5389/ksae.2014.56.1.031

우리나라 미래의 논 벼 생산량과 관개요구량 모델링
Modeling Future Yield and Irrigation Demand of Rice Paddy in Korea 원문보기

한국농공학회논문집 = Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, v.56 no.1, 2014년, pp.31 - 40

은코모제피 템바 (경북대학교 농업토목공학과) , 정상옥 (경북대학교 농업토목공학과)

초록
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기후변화에 따른 기온상승과 강우패턴의 변화에 의한 농업의 취약성에 대한 연구는 주요 관심분야이다. 본 연구에서 기후변화가 한국의 2021~2040 (2030s), 2051~2070 (2060s) 및 2081~2100 (2090s)의 벼의 생산량과 관개요구량에 미치는 영향을 모의발생하여 분석 하였다. 세 가지 대표농도경로 (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCPs)에 대한 12개의 전지구 기후모형이 추정한 기후자료로부터 미래의 작물 물 요구량, 유효강우량, 관개요구량을 물수지 방법으로 계산하였다. Water Accounting Rice Model (WARM) 벼 작물모형을 보정하여 벼 생산량 추정에 이용하였다. 벼 생산량은 금세기 말에는 최대 40 %까지 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 생산량은 특히 경남과 충남지방에서 크게 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 생산량과 관개요구량의 시공간적인 불확실성을 분석한 바, 경북과 전남에서 2090s, RCP8.5때 불확실성이 가장 큰 것으로 나타났다. 미래에 일부 지역은 벼농사에 적합하지 않을 수도 있을 것으로 추정되었으며 기후변화 대응방안에 대한 연구가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

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문제 정의

A combined study of irrigation demand and crop yields will allow the potential impacts of climate change on the demand to be taken in context with the accompanying impacts on yield. The objective of this study is to explore the impact of climate change on the yield and the net irrigation demand of paddy rice in Korea by using General Circulation Model (GCM) ensemble climate projections.

제안 방법

In the box and whisker plots in this study, the box plot whiskers indicate the full data range, the box shows the interquartile-range and the line across the boxes represents the mean. For each scenario, the means were used to detect trend patterns while the ranges and interquartile ranges or standard deviation were used to assess for the GCM ensemble uncertainty. Uncertainty refers to any departure from the unachievable ideal of completely deterministic knowledge of a system (Asseng et al.
In the context of this study, the IWUE is used to identify the provinces of unsustainable water use. The IWUE is not universally applicable, and was adopted in this study after careful consideration of the dynamics of the NIR and rainfall which generally fall between 0.9 and 1.2 of the baseline values in the future. It was assumed that if the IWUE was below 16 kg ha^-1 mm^-1 , a potential vulnerable province was identified.
The impact of climate change on the temperature, rainfall,NIR and yield were assessed quantitatively and presented in box and whisker plots. To facilitate for easier comparison across time periods and provinces, the results of the different scenarios will be presented as relative (future/baseline) or absolute changes (future - baseline; for temperature only).
This paper outlines techniques for generating ensembles of climate change scenarios and projecting the potential impacts of climate on the yield and the irrigation water demand. There was general agreement from the 12 GCM ensemble that both temperature and rainfall will increase in the future.

이론/모형

The water requirement after transplanting can be estimated by multiplying the reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) and the crop coefficient (K_c). ET_o is based on the atmospheric water demand and the crop and soil surface characteristics and was estimated using a modified Microsoft Excel spreadsheet for computing the reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) by using the FAO Penman-Monteith equation (Lupia, 2013). Kc refers to the ratio of the actual ET to the ET_o and it is determined by the climate, crop's conditions and the cultivation practices (Djaman and Irmak, 2013).

성능/효과

There is high spatial and GCM uncertainty of the simulated impacts on yield and irrigation demand. These results of this study imply that that the higher greenhouse gas concentration projectiles (RCPs) showed larger decreases in yield, larger increases in irrigation water demand and decrease in water efficiency. Therefore immediate mitigation and adaptation strategies are required to avoid the potential deterioration of rice production in the Chungbuk, Chungnam and Gyeongbuk provinces due to climate change.

후속연구

Therefore immediate mitigation and adaptation strategies are required to avoid the potential deterioration of rice production in the Chungbuk, Chungnam and Gyeongbuk provinces due to climate change. Further research should be carried out to investigate how Korean farmers can reduce water withdrawal and increase the effective rainfall use and yields in the future.

참고문헌 (27)

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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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상세보기
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원문보기 상세보기
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우리나라 미래의 논 벼 생산량과 관개요구량 모델링
Modeling Future Yield and Irrigation Demand of Rice Paddy in Korea 원문보기

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우리나라 미래의 논 벼 생산량과 관개요구량 모델링 Modeling Future Yield and Irrigation Demand of Rice Paddy in Korea 원문보기

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우리나라 미래의 논 벼 생산량과 관개요구량 모델링
Modeling Future Yield and Irrigation Demand of Rice Paddy in Korea 원문보기

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