스키산업은 기후변화에 매우 민감한 산업이다. 이에 따라 세계 각국의 많은 연구자들이 기후화로 인한 스키산업의 영향을 연구해왔다. 그러나 이런 대부분의 연구들은 대부분 세계적 규모의 대형 스키장을 대상으로 진행해왔기 때문에 우리나라와 같은 소규모 스키장에 연구 결과를 적용하기는 어려웠다. 이에 국내 스키장 17곳을 대상으로 한국적 여건을 고려한 스키산업의 기후 변화 영향을 분석하고자 하였다. 그 결과, 저감 노력 하에 기후변화 추세가 완화한다면(RCP 4.5) 스키산업은 현재와 같은 수준으로 유지될 수 있을 것으로 전망되었다. 그러 현재의 기후변화 추세가 계속 지속된다면(RCP 8.5) 스키산업의 운영 어려움이 발생될 것으로 전망되었는데, 스키장 운영 최소 영업일 100일을 기준으로 했을 때, 17개 스키장 중 2030년대에 3개, 2060년대에는 12개, 2090년대에는 나머지 2개 스키장의 운영이 불가해 질 것으로 전망되었다. 이는 우리나라의 소규모 스키장 또한 해외의 대형 스키장과 마찬가지로 기후변화로 인한 운영 어려움에 노출될 것임을 뜻하며, 스키장의 운영 지속성을 확보하기 위한기술적, 운영적 차원의 적응 노력이 필요함을 시사한다.
스키산업은 기후변화에 매우 민감한 산업이다. 이에 따라 세계 각국의 많은 연구자들이 기후화로 인한 스키산업의 영향을 연구해왔다. 그러나 이런 대부분의 연구들은 대부분 세계적 규모의 대형 스키장을 대상으로 진행해왔기 때문에 우리나라와 같은 소규모 스키장에 연구 결과를 적용하기는 어려웠다. 이에 국내 스키장 17곳을 대상으로 한국적 여건을 고려한 스키산업의 기후 변화 영향을 분석하고자 하였다. 그 결과, 저감 노력 하에 기후변화 추세가 완화한다면(RCP 4.5) 스키산업은 현재와 같은 수준으로 유지될 수 있을 것으로 전망되었다. 그러 현재의 기후변화 추세가 계속 지속된다면(RCP 8.5) 스키산업의 운영 어려움이 발생될 것으로 전망되었는데, 스키장 운영 최소 영업일 100일을 기준으로 했을 때, 17개 스키장 중 2030년대에 3개, 2060년대에는 12개, 2090년대에는 나머지 2개 스키장의 운영이 불가해 질 것으로 전망되었다. 이는 우리나라의 소규모 스키장 또한 해외의 대형 스키장과 마찬가지로 기후변화로 인한 운영 어려움에 노출될 것임을 뜻하며, 스키장의 운영 지속성을 확보하기 위한기술적, 운영적 차원의 적응 노력이 필요함을 시사한다.
Ski industry is sensitive to climate change. Many studies were carried out to learn the impact on climate change to large scale ski resorts around the world and the results are difficult to be applied to small scale ski resorts in general. So, this study targeted small ski resorts composing the ski ...
Ski industry is sensitive to climate change. Many studies were carried out to learn the impact on climate change to large scale ski resorts around the world and the results are difficult to be applied to small scale ski resorts in general. So, this study targeted small ski resorts composing the ski industry of Korea and forecasted the impact of climate change. As a result, based on the mitigation efforts to minimize climate changes of the future (RCP 4.5), ski industry could be maintained at the same level of today. However, if climate change continues at the current trend (RCP 8.5), ski resorts will face loss of business days. If 100 days are considered as the minimum days to maintain the ski business, among 17 ski resorts in Korea, 3 ski resorts will be driven out of business by 2030s, 12 more ski resorts by 2060s and remaining 2 ski resort by 2090s will end the business. It means that smaller ski resorts has higher chance of facing difficulties in running business just as large scale ski resorts. Therefore, to sustain the ski business, technical and managerial efforts to adapt to the changing environment is needed.
Ski industry is sensitive to climate change. Many studies were carried out to learn the impact on climate change to large scale ski resorts around the world and the results are difficult to be applied to small scale ski resorts in general. So, this study targeted small ski resorts composing the ski industry of Korea and forecasted the impact of climate change. As a result, based on the mitigation efforts to minimize climate changes of the future (RCP 4.5), ski industry could be maintained at the same level of today. However, if climate change continues at the current trend (RCP 8.5), ski resorts will face loss of business days. If 100 days are considered as the minimum days to maintain the ski business, among 17 ski resorts in Korea, 3 ski resorts will be driven out of business by 2030s, 12 more ski resorts by 2060s and remaining 2 ski resort by 2090s will end the business. It means that smaller ski resorts has higher chance of facing difficulties in running business just as large scale ski resorts. Therefore, to sustain the ski business, technical and managerial efforts to adapt to the changing environment is needed.
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문제 정의
So, this study focused on the impact of climate change on ski resorts in Korea where the industry is maintained by small size resorts. Several studies were conducted also in Korea(Heo & Lee, 2008; Heo & Lee, 2010; Heo & Lee, 2012).
The significance of these studies is the establishment of standard on the impact of climate change to tourism industry as well as the estimation of future changes and possible risk. However, most of these studies were performed at large scale ski resorts in Austria and Canada and other famous locations around the world.
This study focused on the impact of climate change on small scale ski resorts in Korea.
Base on the comment from operators, this study set a hypothesis that even the ski resorts lose its revenue source, it might be able to run as a service-oriented facility and maintain its business. This study worked on the hypothesis and outlook how long ski resorts might be able to maintain its operation. Despite the climate change speed, if business could continue to open 60 days, all 17 resorts shall keep its business by 2030s, 16 resorts by 2060s and 11 resorts by 2090s.
가설 설정
Base on the comment from operators, this study set a hypothesis that even the ski resorts lose its revenue source, it might be able to run as a service-oriented facility and maintain its business. This study worked on the hypothesis and outlook how long ski resorts might be able to maintain its operation.
제안 방법
As a result, Korean ski resorts are able to produce artificial snow at higher temperature. Second, unlike other studies where depth of snow was used as basic measurement to count the number of days that require snow making to keep the resort opened, this study shifted the focus from quantity frame to time frame since it is extremely difficult to calculate the total amount of snow to accumulate 30 cm from snow precipitation. Third, this study set the closing condition of the resorts based on the quality of snow.
The Korean Ski Season Simulation Model was developed to run a scenario of ski season for this study. The model was developed using the interview of 7 ski resort operators at each divided region.
The model was developed using the interview of 7 ski resort operators at each divided region. The interviewer asked what conditions forced the operators to start making artificial snow as well as factors that determine opening and closing of the resort. The interview was given on one-on-one base over the phone for half an hour during March 23 to 27, 2013.
This study used the existing climate data and projected the minimum temperature from November to March in the future. According to data analysis, the minimum temperature from April to October until 2100 does not drop below zero degree in Korea so the data was excluded in this study.
Thus, this study initially intended to set the condition of “resort closing” at the point when snow deteriorates easily and change of environment is closely related to the degree of attractiveness of visiting ski resorts by customers, namely, when temperature is over zero degree.
대상 데이터
The interviewer asked what conditions forced the operators to start making artificial snow as well as factors that determine opening and closing of the resort. The interview was given on one-on-one base over the phone for half an hour during March 23 to 27, 2013.
The Korean Ski Season Simulation Model was developed to run a scenario of ski season for this study. The model was developed using the interview of 7 ski resort operators at each divided region. The interviewer asked what conditions forced the operators to start making artificial snow as well as factors that determine opening and closing of the resort.
This study investigated all 17 ski resorts in Korea. The location of resorts is divided by administrative district as referred below (‘do’; the unit equivalent to ‘state’ of USA).
성능/효과
5 scenario based on the hypothesis that climate change rate will be maintained at today’s level, as other prestigious resorts around the world, Korea’s small scale resort will face grave difficulties. The result of this study shows that the ski season would be shortened to 118 days in 2030s, 88 days in 2060s and 70 days by 2090s. This results aligns with other case studies on ski resort in Ontario, Canada which is expected to face reduction of operation days from 123 days to 73 days.
참고문헌 (21)
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