본 연구는 울산항의 정박지 규모의 적정성을 평가하기 위한 방법을 제시하고, 이를 통해 현재 뿐만 아니라 항만개발에 따른 미래의 정박지 규모의 적정성을 분석하는데 그 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 울산항의 정박지 적정성 평가를 위한 정박지 가동률 개념을 제시하였다. 그리고 이 가동률 개념을 울산항의 2014년 정박지에 적용하여 가동률을 계산한 결과 모든 정박지에서 가동률이 100 %를 넘지 않는 것으로 도출되어, 추가 정박지 지정이 필요하지 않은 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 울산항의 2020년 가동률을 추정한 결과 E1정박지가 168.3 %로 가장 높았으며, E3정박지가 131.1 %, E2정박지가 118.5 %, 그리고 M정박지가 108.7 %인 것으로 계산되어, 2020년에는 정박지가 부족할 것으로 판단된다. 따라서 울산항의 항만개발에 따른 정박지 가동률을 100 % 수준으로 낮추기 위해서는 E1정박지는 11척, E2정박지는 1척, E3정박지는 2척, M정박지는 1척이 추가적으로 정박할 수 있는 수역이 필요할 것으로 분석되었다.
본 연구는 울산항의 정박지 규모의 적정성을 평가하기 위한 방법을 제시하고, 이를 통해 현재 뿐만 아니라 항만개발에 따른 미래의 정박지 규모의 적정성을 분석하는데 그 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 울산항의 정박지 적정성 평가를 위한 정박지 가동률 개념을 제시하였다. 그리고 이 가동률 개념을 울산항의 2014년 정박지에 적용하여 가동률을 계산한 결과 모든 정박지에서 가동률이 100 %를 넘지 않는 것으로 도출되어, 추가 정박지 지정이 필요하지 않은 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 울산항의 2020년 가동률을 추정한 결과 E1정박지가 168.3 %로 가장 높았으며, E3정박지가 131.1 %, E2정박지가 118.5 %, 그리고 M정박지가 108.7 %인 것으로 계산되어, 2020년에는 정박지가 부족할 것으로 판단된다. 따라서 울산항의 항만개발에 따른 정박지 가동률을 100 % 수준으로 낮추기 위해서는 E1정박지는 11척, E2정박지는 1척, E3정박지는 2척, M정박지는 1척이 추가적으로 정박할 수 있는 수역이 필요할 것으로 분석되었다.
This study suggests methods to evaluate the availability of anchorage in Ulsan port and determine the proper capacity of future anchorage in accordance with port development. Accordingly, the concept of an Anchorage Operating Rate (AOR) is introduced to evaluate the capacity of anchorage that was av...
This study suggests methods to evaluate the availability of anchorage in Ulsan port and determine the proper capacity of future anchorage in accordance with port development. Accordingly, the concept of an Anchorage Operating Rate (AOR) is introduced to evaluate the capacity of anchorage that was available in Ulsan port in 2014. Calculations revealed that the operating rate of all anchorages in Ulsan port did not exceed 100 %. However, in 2020 it is estimated that the AOR at E1 anchorage will be the highest with a rate of 168.3 %, followed by E3 with 131.1 %, E2 with 118.5 % and M with 108.7%. These findings indicate a shortage of anchorage by 2020. In order to decrease the AOR to a level that will not exceed 100 %, in accordance with port development in Ulsan, areas to accommodate an additional 11 ships at E1 anchorage, 1 ship at E2 anchorage, 2 ships at E3 anchorage and 1 ship at M anchorage will be necessary.
This study suggests methods to evaluate the availability of anchorage in Ulsan port and determine the proper capacity of future anchorage in accordance with port development. Accordingly, the concept of an Anchorage Operating Rate (AOR) is introduced to evaluate the capacity of anchorage that was available in Ulsan port in 2014. Calculations revealed that the operating rate of all anchorages in Ulsan port did not exceed 100 %. However, in 2020 it is estimated that the AOR at E1 anchorage will be the highest with a rate of 168.3 %, followed by E3 with 131.1 %, E2 with 118.5 % and M with 108.7%. These findings indicate a shortage of anchorage by 2020. In order to decrease the AOR to a level that will not exceed 100 %, in accordance with port development in Ulsan, areas to accommodate an additional 11 ships at E1 anchorage, 1 ship at E2 anchorage, 2 ships at E3 anchorage and 1 ship at M anchorage will be necessary.
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제안 방법
As it was found that the anchorages in Ulsan port have not been used for 3 days due to the influence of heavy weather and typhoon, the AVR per day was analyzed by dividing the number of ships using anchorage for 1 year by 362 days.
First, the AOR was introduced by considering the number of ships using anchorage, the dwell time, the length of ship, and the standards for calculating the proper capacity of anchorage were proposed.
In order to analyze AOR at anchorages in Ulsan port in 2014, the volume of ships using anchorage and volume of anchorage capacity were analyzed, and the findings are as follows (Table 6).
In order to identify the extent of anchorages being used and analyze whether the anchorages are sufficient or not, the AOR model was suggested by considering the volume of ships using anchorage, the dwell time at anchorage and other various conditions. The concept of AOR and estimating methods will be discussed below.
In order to predict the AOR at anchorage in Ulsan port in 2020, the volume of ships using anchorage and volume of anchorage capacity were analyzed and the findings are as follows (Table 10). When calculating the AVR, 362 days, which is the same as 2014, was used for the average days using anchorage for 1 year.
The AORs were analyzed on the basis of the analysis of volume of ships using anchorage and volume of anchorage capacity, and the findings are as follows (Fig. 2).
The regression analysis (Fig. 3~5) were carried out in order to estimate the number of ships using anchorage, the average length of ships using anchorage and the average dwell time at anchorage and the formulas are as follows (Formula 4~6).
This study proposed a model which can calculate the Anchorage Operating Rate (Hereinafter referred to as "AOR") and proposed an interactive formula by carrying out a regression analysis on the interrelation among the number of ships using anchorage, the length of ship, and the dwell time at anchorage and harbour volume.
This study proposed methods to evaluate the proper capacity of anchorage in Ulsan port by introducing the concept of AOR and suggested the formula by carrying out a regression analysis on the interrelation among the number of ships using anchorage, the length of ship, and the dwell time at anchorage and harbour volume. With this formula, this study anticipated the AOR at anchorages in Ulsan port in 2020 and proposed the necessary capacity of anchorage.
This study proposed a model which can calculate the Anchorage Operating Rate (Hereinafter referred to as "AOR") and proposed an interactive formula by carrying out a regression analysis on the interrelation among the number of ships using anchorage, the length of ship, and the dwell time at anchorage and harbour volume. With this formula, this study analyzed the AOR at anchorages in Ulsan port at its present (2014) and the future (2020), and ultimately proposed the necessary capacity of anchorage in the upcoming future.
대상 데이터
The M anchorage in Ulsan port is a group anchorage, located on the right side of No. 1 Fairway, and on the left side of the Hyundai Heavy Industry. The M anchorage can be used by ships below 2,000 GT and ships obtaining special permit from the Ulsan Regional Office of Oceans and Fisheries.
데이터처리
For the estimation of those factors, the interrelation among harbour volume, ships using anchorage and incoming ship, which are generally used as the index of port development plan, can be examined. This study carried out a regression analysis of interrelation among the number of ships using anchorages in Ulsan port, average length of ship, average dwell time, harbour volume and the number of incoming ships between the year of 2005 and 2014, and consequently suggested an approximate formula.
이론/모형
Having analyzed average length of ships using anchorages in Ulsan port, depth and seabed of anchorages, the turing radius was calculated by applying the Korea Harbour and Fishery Port Design Standards. The findings are shown as below (Table 5).
성능/효과
Fourth, as a result of the estimation of the AOR at anchorages in Ulsan port in 2020, it was analyzed that the AOR at E1 anchorage will be the highest with 168.3 %, followed by E3 anchorage with 131.0 %, E2 anchorage with 118.5 %, M anchorage with 108.7 %. Thus, it was analyzed that AOR at all anchorages will be over 100 % by 2020 and it is considered that additional anchorages need to be secured.
Last, the number of necessary anchoring ships was examined in order to decrease the AOR to the level of 100 %, and it is analyzed that more areas which can accommodate additional 11 ships at E1 anchorage, 1 ship at E2 anchorage, 2 ships at E3 anchorage and 1 ship at M anchorage respectively would be necessary.
With the result of suitability analysis of the regression model, it was found out that the explanatory pofwer of all formulas are over 80 % and the Durbin-watson test was within the range of 13, approving the independence of residual. With the result of significance test of dispersion model, it was found out that the significance probabilities against "F" are below 0.
후속연구
Future study is needed to study the techniques that can analyze the AOR considering the characteristics of the port, such as peak time, type of ship. Moreover, with this concept of AOR specified in this paper, the AOR at all anchorages in South Korea can be analyzed and it can ultimately contribute to the safety of ships within ports by applying the proper capacity of anchorage to the Korea Harbour and Fishery Port Design Standards.
참고문헌 (9)
Deville, S. B.(2011), Port of Rotterdam Anchorages Study, Delft University of Technology, Master Thesis, pp. 50-52.
Kim, B. Y.(2010), On the Standard of Expanding the Anchorage for Development of Ulsan's new port, Graduate school of Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Master Thesis, pp. 100-119.
Lee, C. H. and H. H. Lee(2014), A Study on Expansion of Anchorage according to Increased Trading Volume at Pyeongtaek Port, The Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety, Vol. 20, No. 6, pp. 663-670.
Lee, Y. S.(2014), A Study on the Anchoring Safety Assessment of E-Group Anchorage in Ulsan Port, Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 172-178.
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