[논문]국내 코로나바이러스감염증-19의 감염재생산수 추정

정재웅; 권혁무; 홍성훈; 이민구

doi:10.7469/jksqm.2020.48.3.493

국내 코로나바이러스감염증-19의 감염재생산수 추정
Estimation of Reproduction Number for COVID-19 in Korea 원문보기

品質經營學會誌 = Journal of Korean society for quality management, v.48 no.3, 2020년, pp.493 - 510

정재웅 (국방과학연구소) , 권혁무 (부경대학교 시스템경영공학부) , 홍성훈 (전북대학교 산업정보시스템공학과) , 이민구 (충남대학교 정보통계학과)

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Purpose: As of July 31, there were 14,336 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea, including 301 deaths. Since the daily confirmed number of cases hit 909 on February 29, the spread of the disease had gradually decreased due to the active implementation of preventive control interventions, and the daily confirmed number had finally recorded a single digit on April 19. Since May, however, the disease has re-emerged and retaining after June. In order to eradicate the disease, it is necessary to suggest suitable forward preventive strategies by predicting future infectivity of the disease based on the cases so far. Therefore, in this study, we aim to evaluate the transmission potential of the disease in early phases by estimating basic reproduction number and assess the preventive control measures through effective reproduction number. Methods: We used publicly available cases and deaths data regarding COVID-19 in South Korea as of July 31. Using ensemble model integrated stochastic linear birth model and deterministic linear growth model, the basic reproduction number and the effective reproduction number were estimated. Results: Estimated basic reproduction number is 3.1 (95% CI: 3.0-3.2). Effective reproduction number was the highest with 7 on February 15, decreased as of April 20. Since then, the value is gradually increased to more than unity. Conclusion: Preventive policy such as wearing a mask and physical distancing campaigns in the early phase of the outbreak was fairly implemented. However, the infection potential increased due to weakening government policy on May 6. Our results suggest that it seems necessary to implement a stronger policy than the current level.

주제어

표/그림 (8)

그림 Figure 1. Description of serial interval and generation time.
표 Table 1. Estimators based on the distribution of generation time (serial interval)
그림 Figure 2. Daily incidence and cumulative cases of COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea.
그림 Figure 3. Fitted trajectories of cumulative cases with Model 1(left panel) and Model 2(right panel) versus time of Scenario 1, respectively. Circled dots represent real data. Blue line represents median and 95% credible interval ranges are shown as dashed red line. Whole results are shown in grey line.
표 Table 2. Estimated growth rate and basic reproduction number using each model against three scenarios
그림 Figure 4. Fitted trajectories of cumulative cases with Model 1(left panel) and Model 2(right panel) versus time of Scenario 2, respectively. Circled dots represent real data. Blue line represents median and 95% credible interval ranges are shown as dashed red line. Whole results are shown in grey line.
그림 Figure 6. Tracking changes in estimated effective reproduction number every 5 days.
표 Table 3. Government responses for COVID-19 control.

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