한국군은 북한의 탄도미사일 위협에 대응하기 위해 단층방어의 취약점을 보완할 수 있는 다층방어를 구성 중이다. 이에 따라 다층방어체계의 요격률을 극대화 할 수 있는 운용방안 연구가 필요하며, 한국형 미사일 방어체계의 운용방안을 연구하기 위해서는 한국군의 작전환경, 전략적 타격체계의 효과 등을 종합적으로 고려해야 할 것이다. 따라서 본 연구는 한국형 미사일 방어체계의 특성을 반영한 시뮬레이션을 구성하고 총 4가지 요격미사일 운용방안을 선정하여 비교분석 하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과, 탄도미사일 위협 추정량과 요격미사일 보유량, 전략적 타격체계의 효과를 종합적으로 고려하는 것이 다양한 상황에서 높은 요격률을 달성할 수 있음을 확인하였다.
In order to respond to the ballistic missile threat of North Korea, the ROK military is constructing a multi-layered defense that can minimize the vulnerability of single-layered defense. Accordingly, it is necessary to study an operation plan which can maximize the intercept rate of a multi-layered defense system. And to study the operation plan of the Korean missile defense system, it must be considered that the operational environment of the Korean military and the effects of the strategic strike system. Therefore, this study proposes a simulation model that reflects the characteristics of the Korean missile defense system and analyzes four interceptor missile operation plans. The simulation result indicates that a high intercept rate can be achieved in various situations by comprehensively considering the ballistic missile threat estimate, interceptor missile reserve, and the strategic strike system effect.
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