[논문]한국에서 동아시아 난대 목본식물의 잠재분포 가능성 평가

이철호; 김휘래; 조강현; 최병기; 이보라

doi:10.17820/eri.2022.9.4.269

한국에서 동아시아 난대 목본식물의 잠재분포 가능성 평가
Assessment of Potential Distribution Possibility of the Warm-Temperate Woody Plants of East Asia in Korea 원문보기

Ecology and resilient infrastructure, v.9 no.4, 2022년, pp.269 - 281

이철호 (인하대학교 바이오시스템융합학과) , 김휘래 ((주)수성엔지니어링) , 조강현 (인하대학교 생명과학과) , 최병기 (국립산림과학원 난대.아열대산림연구소) , 이보라 (국립산림과학원 난대.아열대산림연구소)

초록
AI-Helper

기후변화에 따라서 식생과 식물종의 분포 변화를 예측하는 것이 생태계 관리에서 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 동아시아의 난대 목본식물종의 한반도 분포 가능성을 체계적으로 평가할 수 있는 방안을 개발하고자 하였다. 먼저 중국과 일본에서는 분포하지만 한국에는 분포하지 않은 난대 목본식물종의 목록을 수집하고 그들의 전지구적 분포와 생물기후 자료를 수집하였다. 또한 한국의 난대식생대를 한랭지수를 이용하여 구분하고 이 지역의 기후 정보를 수집하였다. 기후 변수들 사이의 상관분석으로 다중공선성을 배제하고 분포에 영향을 미치는 기후변수로서 최한사분기 평균기온, 평균온도일교차 및 연강수량이 선택되었다. 동아시아 난대 목본식물종의 분포지와 한국 난대식생대의 3가지 기후 변수 사이의 유사도를 산출하기 위하여 다변량 환경 유사도 표면 (MESS) 분석을 실시하였다. 최종적으로 단계적 변수선택 회귀로 MESS 유사도 지수에 영향을 미치는 주요 기후변수로서 최한사분기 평균기온과 연강수량을 선별하였다. 선택된 2 변수로 구성된 다변량 일차회귀에서 최한사분기 평균기온이 전체 변이의 88%를 차지하였다. 총 319 동아시아 난대 목본식물종에 대하여 MESS 유사도 지수를 산출하는 구축된 다변량 회귀식을 적용하여 이들이 한국에 잠재분포 할 가능성을 평가할 수 있었다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

The prediction of changes regarding the distribution of vegetation and plant species according to climate changes is important for ecosystem management. In this study, we attempted to develop an assessment method to evaluate the possibility of the potential distribution of warm-temperate woody plant species of East Asia in Korea. To begin with, a list of warm-temperate woody plants distributed in China and Japan, but not in Korea, was prepared, and a database consisting their global distribution and bioclimatic variables was constructed. In addition, the warm-temperate vegetation zone in Korea was delineated using the coldness index and relevant bioclimatic data were collected. After the exclusion of multicollinearity among bioclimatic variables using correlation analysis, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, mean temperature diurnal range, and annual precipitation were selected as the major variables that influence the distribution of warm-temperate plants. A multivariate environment similarity surfaces (MESS) analysis was conducted to calculate the similarity scores between the distribution of these three bioclimatic variables in the global distribution sites of the East Asian warm-temperate woody plants and the Korean warm-temperate vegetation zone. Finally, using stepwise variable-selection regression, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and annual precipitation were selected as the main bioclimatic variables that affect the MESS similarity index. The mean temperature of the coldest quarter accounted for 88% of the total variance. For a total of 319 East Asian warm-temperate woody plant species, the possibility of their potential distribution in Korea was evaluated by applying the constructed multivariate regression model that calculates the MESS similarity index.

주제어

표/그림 (6)

그림 Fig. 1. A map showing the global distribution of warm-temperate woody plants distributed in China and Japan not in Korea (left) and the warm temperate vegetation zone of Korea according to the coldness index (Kira 1991) (right).
그림 Fig. 2. Biplots of principal components analysis (PCA) of climates in the distribution sites of warm-temperate woody plants of East Asia (black dot) and in the warm-temperate vegetation zone of Korea (red dot) (T01 = max temperature of warmest month, T02 = mean temperature of warmest quarter, T03 = mean temperature of wettest quarter, T04 = annual mean temperature, T05 = min temperature of coldest month, T06 = mean temperature of driest quarter, T07 = mean temperature of coldest quarter, T08 = temperature annual range, T09 = temperature seasonality, T10 = temperature isothermality, T11 = mean temperature diurnal range, P01 = precipitation of warmest quarter, P02 = precipitation of wettest month, P03 = precipitation of wettest quarter, P04 = annual precipitation, P05 = precipitation of driest month, P06 = precipitation of driest quarter, P07 = precipitation of coldest quarter, P08 = precipitation seasonality.
표 Table 1. Pearson's correlation coefficients between climate variables. Italic numerals indicate the significance at α = 0.01 and bold numerals indicate values greater than 0.75 as an absolute value. Shading of the sa
표 Table 2. Results of a stepwise regression (R² = 0.89, p<0.001) estimating the multivariate environmental similarity surfaces (MESS) scores of the distribution of warm-temperate woody plants of East Asia in the warm-temperate vegetation zone of Korea according to major climate variables (n=25,016)
표 Table 3. List of warm-temperate woody plants of East Asia by the ranges of the scores from the multivariate environmental similarity surfaces (MESS) of mean temperature of the coldest quarter and annual precipitation between their distribution sites and the warm temperate vegetation zone of Korea. The score indicates the possibility of potential distribution of warm-temperate woody plants of East Asia in Korea
표 Table 3. Continued

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