[논문]기상청 기후예측시스템(GloSea6) - Part 2: 기후모의 평균 오차 특성 분석

현유경; 이조한; 신범철; 최유나; 김지영; 이상민; 지희숙; 부경온; 임소민; 김혜리; 류영; 박연희; 박형식; 추성호; 현승훤; 황승언

doi:10.14191/atmos.2022.32.2.087

기상청 기후예측시스템(GloSea6) - Part 2: 기후모의 평균 오차 특성 분석
The KMA Global Seasonal forecasting system (GloSea6) - Part 2: Climatological Mean Bias Characteristics 원문보기

대기 = Atmosphere, v.32 no.2, 2022년, pp.87 - 101

현유경 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) , 이조한 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) , 신범철 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) , 최유나 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) , 김지영 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) , 이상민 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) , 지희숙 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) , 부경온 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) , 임소민 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) , 김혜리 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) , 류영 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) , 박연희 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) , 박형식 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) , 추성호 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) , 현승훤 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기) , 황승언

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

In this paper, the performance improvement for the new KMA's Climate Prediction System (GloSea6), which has been built and tested in 2021, is presented by assessing the bias distribution of basic variables from 24 years of GloSea6 hindcasts. Along with the upgrade from GloSea5 to GloSea6, the performance of GloSea6 can be regarded as notable in many respects: improvements in (i) negative bias of geopotential height over the tropical and mid-latitude troposphere and over polar stratosphere in boreal summer; (ii) cold bias of tropospheric temperature; (iii) underestimation of mid-latitude jets; (iv) dry bias in the lower troposphere; (v) cold tongue bias in the equatorial SST and the warm bias of Southern Ocean, suggesting the potential of improvements to the major climate variability in GloSea6. The warm surface temperature in the northern hemisphere continent in summer is eliminated by using CDF-matched soil-moisture initials. However, the cold bias in high latitude snow-covered area in winter still needs to be improved in the future. The intensification of the westerly winds of the summer Asian monsoon and the weakening of the northwest Pacific high, which are considered to be major errors in the GloSea system, had not been significantly improved. However, both the use of increased number of ensembles and the initial conditions at the closest initial dates reveals possibility to improve these biases. It is also noted that the effect of ensemble expansion mainly contributes to the improvement of annual variability over high latitudes and polar regions.

주제어

표/그림 (11)

표 Table 1. Updates of model configurations, resolution, initials and ensembles of GloSea6 comparing to GloSea5. Upcoming main changes in 2022 for GloSea6 are written in Italic separately.
그림 Fig. 1. Zonal averaged vertical structure for geopotential height biases during (a) JJA and (b) DJF. Left and middle panels are biases of GloSea6 and GloSea5, and right panels are the differences of absolute biases between GloSea6 and 5.
그림 Fig. 2. Same as Fig. 1 except but (a) temperature, (b) zonal wind and (c) specific humidity during JJA. Contours are modelclimatologies, and shadings are biases.
그림 Fig. 3. Same as Fig. 2 except for DJF.
그림 Fig. 4. DJF mean specific humidity over 850 hPa for (a) ERA-Interim, (b) GloSea5 and (c) GloSea6.
그림 Fig. 5. Spatial biases for 500 hPa geopotential height (a) during summer (JJA) and (b) winter (DJF), and for 200 hPa zonal wind (c) during summer (JJA) and (d) winter (DJF). Left and middle are biases of GloSea6 and GloSea5, and rights are differences of absolute biases between GloSea6 and 5 (bias improvements).
그림 Fig. 6. Same as Fig. 4 except but SST during (a) JJA and (b) DJF.
그림 Fig. 7. Differences of absolute biases between GloSea6 and 5 (bias improvements) for 1.5 m temperature during (a) JJA and (b) DJF.
그림 Fig. 8. GloSea6 biases for (a) MSLP, (b) 850 hPa zonal wind and (c) precipitation during summer (JJA), and bias improvements of (d) MSLP, (e) 850 hPa zonal wind, and (f) precipitation when it used the closest single initial date.
그림 Fig. 9. Time-latitude cross section of precipitation anomalies (mm day^-1) over 115~135°E from (a) observation (GPCP) and (b) GloSea6.
그림 Fig. 10. Differences of correlations between GloSea6 results for 7 and 3 ensemble members (correlation improvements). From the top, (a) MSLP, (b) 850 hPa zonal wind, (c) 1.5 m temperature and (d) precipitation during JJA (left) and DJF (right).

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