[논문]Decision Scaling 기반 댐 운영 기후변화 가뭄 취약성 평가

김지흔; 서승범; 조재필

doi:10.3741/jkwra.2023.56.4.273

Decision Scaling 기반 댐 운영 기후변화 가뭄 취약성 평가
Development of a decision scaling framework for drought vulnerability assessment of dam operation under climate change 원문보기

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association = 한국수자원학회논문집, v.56 no.4, 2023년, pp.273 - 284

김지흔 (서울시립대학교 도시과학연구원 국제도시 및 인프라연구센터) , 서승범 (서울시립대학교 국제도시과학대학원) , 조재필 (유역통합관리연구원)

초록
AI-Helper

최근 지속적인 가뭄으로 물 공급에 큰 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 이러한 극한 사상의 발생은 기후변화에 따라 더욱 빈번해질 것으로 전망된다. 본 연구는 기후변화에 따른 댐 운영 가뭄 취약성을 평가하고자, 보다 넓은 범위에서 미래 기후변화의 변동성을 반영할 수 있는 decision scaling 기법을 제안하였다. 충청남도 보령댐을 시범유역으로 선정하고 양적 신뢰도를 이용하여 평가한 결과, 보령댐의 가뭄 취약도는 도수로 반영 여부에 따라 95.80% 에서 98.13%까지 변동하였고, 기후변화에 매우 취약한 것으로 나타났다. 더불어 유전 알고리즘 기반 최적의 헤징룰을 산정하여 가뭄 취약성의 저감 효과를 분석하였고, 다양한 사회·경제적 변화에 대응하기 위해 세 가지 수요 시나리오(고수요, 저수요, 기준수요) 하에서 평가를 진행하였다. 양적 신뢰도와 극한가뭄 발생 빈도를 평가 기준으로 분석한 결과, 두 헤징룰은 K-water의 용수공급 조정기준 대비 저수요 시나리오에서 공급 안정도를 개선시킴으로써 극한가뭄에 적절히 대처할 수 있는 방법으로 사용될 수 있을 것이다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Water supply is continuously suffering from frequent droughts under climate change, and such extreme events are expected to become more frequent due to climate change. In this study, the decision scaling method was introduced to evaluate the drought vulnerability under future climate change in a wider range. As a result, the water supply reliability of the Boryeong Dam ranged from 95.80% to 98.13% to the condition of the aqueduct which was constructed at the Boryeong Dam. Furthermore, the Boryeong Dam was discovered to be vulnerable under climate change scenarios. Hence, genetic algorithm-based hedging rules were developed to evaluate the reduction effect of drought vulnerability. Moreover, three demand scenarios (high, standard, and low demand) were also considered to reflect the future socio-economic change in the Boryeong Dam. By analyzing quantitative reliability and the probability of extreme drought occurrence under 5% of the water storage rate, all hedging rules demonstrated that they were superior in preparing for extreme drought under low-demand scenarios.

주제어

표/그림 (10)

그림 Fig. 1. Example of decision scaling plot
그림 Fig. 2. Study basin: Boryeong Dam and aqueduct
표 Table 1. List of 15 Global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 used in this study
그림 Fig. 3. Discrete hedging definition and rationing factor (reduction ratio)
그림 Fig. 4. K-water operation rule and simply averaged hedging rule: Boryeong Dam
그림 Fig. 5. Boryeong Dam reliability by aqueduct condition
그림 Fig. 6. Developed hedging rules: (a) Simple hedging rule; (b) Genetic algorithm-based hedging rule
표 Table 2. Water rationing factor (α) under drought level
그림 Fig. 7. Water supply reliability of Boryeong Dam system evaluated by scenario neutral approach
그림 Fig. 8. Drought frequency of Boryeong Dam system evaluated by scenario neutral approach

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