[논문]Estimating a breakpoint in the pattern of spread of COVID-19 in South Korea

Kim, Young-Joo; Seo, Myung Hwan; Yeom, Hyun-E

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.055

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Abstract Objectives Amid the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis, South Korea has been lauded for successfully preventing the spread of this infectious disease, which may be due to the aggressive implementation of preventive policies. This study was performed to evaluate the pattern o...

Abstract Objectives Amid the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis, South Korea has been lauded for successfully preventing the spread of this infectious disease, which may be due to the aggressive implementation of preventive policies. This study was performed to evaluate the pattern of spread of COVID-19 in South Korea considering the potential impact of policy interventions on transmission rates. Methods A SIR (susceptible–infected–removed) model with a breakpoint that allows a change in transmission rate at an unknown point was established. Estimated trajectories of COVID-19 from SIR models with and without a breakpoint were compared. Results The proposed model with a break fitted the actual series of infection cases much better than the classic model. The estimated breakpoint was March 7, 2020 and the transmission rate dropped by 0.23 after the breakpoint. A counterfactual study based on our estimate indicated that the number of infected could have reached 2 500 000 compared to the peak of 8000 in the observed series. Conclusions It is critical to consider a change in the transmission rate to evaluate the trajectory of spread of COVID-19 in South Korea. Our estimation and counterfactual experiments indicate that public health interventions may play a role in determining the pattern of spread of infectious diseases. Highlights We applied the SIR (susceptible–infected–removed) model with a breakpoint to allow for a change in transmission rate. The model accurately estimated the trajectory of COVID-19 spread in South Korea. The breakpoint may reflect potential effects of preventive strategies on transmission rates. Counterfactual experiments illustrated potential impacts of the breakpoint on the spread of infection.

Keyword

참고문헌 (12)

Anderson R.M. Heesterbeek H. Klinkenberg D. Hollingsworth T.D. How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? Lancet 395 2020 931 934 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5 32164834

상세보기
Cauchemez S. Ferguson N.M. Wachtel C. Tegnell A. Saour G. Duncan B. Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic Lancet Infect Dis 9 2009 473 481 10.1016/S1473-3099(09)70176-8 19628172

상세보기
Chladna Z. Kopfova J. Rachinskii D. Rouf S.C. Global dynamics of SIR model with switched transmission rate J Math Biol 80 2020 1209 1233 10.1007/s00285-019-01460-2 31900507

상세보기
Ferguson N.M. Cummings D.A. Fraser C. Cajka J.C. Cooley P.C. Burke D.S. Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic Nature 442 July (7101) 2006 448 452 10.1038/nature04795 16642006

상세보기
Ferguson N. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand 2020 10.25561/77482 16 March 2020
Kass-Hout T.A. Xu Z. McMurray P. Park S. Buckeridge D.L. Brownstein J.S. Application of change point analysis to daily influenza-like illness emergency department visits J Am Med Inform Assoc 19 2012 1075 1081 10.1136/amiajnl-2011-000793 22759619

상세보기
Kermack W.O. McKendrick A.G. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics Proc R Soc Lond A Math Phys Sci 115 1927 700 721 10.1098/rspa.1927.0118

상세보기
Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2020 [Accessed 15 April 2020] http://www.cdc.go.kr/cdc_eng
Liu X. Stechlinski P. Pulse and constant control schemes for epidemic models with seasonality Nonlinear Anal Real World Appl 12 2011 931 946 10.1016/j.nonrwa.2010.08.017

상세보기
Marais B.J. Sorrell T.C. Pathways to COVID-19 ‘community protection’ Int J Infect Dis 96 2020 496 499 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.05.058 In this issue 32425642

상세보기
Ministry of Health and Welfare Coronavirus disease-19, Republic of Korea 2020 http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/en
Weiss H.H. The SIR model and the foundations of public health Mater Matematics 3 2013 1 17

이 논문을 인용한 문헌

LOADING...

활용도 분석정보

상세보기

다운로드

내보내기

활용도 Top5 논문

해당 논문의 주제분야에서 활용도가 높은 상위 5개 콘텐츠를 보여줍니다.
더보기 버튼을 클릭하시면 더 많은 관련자료를 살펴볼 수 있습니다.

내보내기 구분	파일저장 인쇄 메일전송
구성항목	기본정보 상세정보 관리번호, 논문명, 저널/프로시딩명, 저자 , 발행년, 권, 호, 시작페이지, 끝페이지, 발행기관 관리번호, 논문명, 대등논문명, 저자 , 저널/프로시딩명, 발행기관, 발행년, 발행언어, 권, 호, 시작페이지, 끝페이지, ISBN, ISSN, 주제분야, 키워드, 초록(한글), 초록(영문), 저자(소속기관)
저장형식	Text(ASCII format) Excel format RefWorks Direct Export RIS format (for Reference Manager, ProCite, EndNote), Scholar's Aids, Mendeley
메일정보	받는사람 (필수) @ 보내는사람 (선택) @ 제목 내용 KISTI 검색결과 이메일 서비스
안내	총 건의 자료가 검색되었습니다. 다운받으실 자료의 인덱스를 입력하세요. (1-10,000) 검색결과의 순서대로 최대 10,000건 까지 다운로드가 가능합니다. 데이타가 많을 경우 속도가 느려질 수 있습니다.(최대 2~3분 소요) 다운로드 파일은 UTF-8 형태로 저장됩니다. 파일의 내용이 제대로 보이지 않을실 때는 웹브라우저 상단의 보기 -> 인코딩 -> 자동선택 여부를 확인하십시오. ~ Text(ASCII format) Excel format

연합인증

[해외논문] Estimating a breakpoint in the pattern of spread of COVID-19 in South Korea 원문보기

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Keyword

참고문헌 (12)

이 논문을 인용한 문헌

연구과제 타임라인

활용도 분석정보

활용도 Top5 논문

관련 콘텐츠

원문 보기

원문 URL 링크

오픈액세스(OA) 유형

이 논문과 함께 이용한 콘텐츠

AI-Helper ※ AI-Helper는 오픈소스 모델을 사용합니다.

선택된 텍스트

연합인증

[해외논문] Estimating a breakpoint in the pattern of spread of COVID-19 in South Korea 원문보기

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Keyword

참고문헌 (12)

이 논문을 인용한 문헌

연구과제 타임라인

전체(0) 논문(0) 특허(0) 보고서(0)

전체(0) 논문(0) 특허(0) 보고서(0)

활용도 분석정보

활용도 Top5 논문 더보기

관련 콘텐츠

원문 보기

원문 URL 링크

오픈액세스(OA) 유형

이 논문과 함께 이용한 콘텐츠

AI-Helper ※ AI-Helper는 오픈소스 모델을 사용합니다.

선택된 텍스트

활용도 Top5 논문