1990년대 이후 한국 경제는 두 번의 금융위기(1997년 아시아 금융위기와 2008년 글로벌 금융위기)를 겪었다. 이들 금융위기는 한국 실물경제의 여러 지표에 영향을 끼쳤고 이로 인해 한국의 최대 수출입 관문인 부산항에서 처리되는 물동량 변화에도 영향을 주었다. 그러나 아시아 금융위기 당시 부산항의 총 컨테이너처리실적을 살펴보면 금융위기와 관련된 영향이 명백히 나타나고 있지 않다. 이 연구는 이들 금융위기가 부산항 물동량 변화에 끼친 영향을 분석하기 위해 ARIMA모형의 특수한 형태 중 하나인 개입모형을 이용하였다. 개입모형은 시계열 예측뿐만 아니라 특정 사건발생과 관련된 그 효과를 분석하기 위하여 사용되는 정량적 모형으로 이 연구에서는 개입효과의 추정에 중점을 두었다. 그 결과 부산항 물동량 변화에 두 번의 금융위기가 유의미한 영향을 미쳤다는 것을 보였다.
The economy of South Korea has experienced two financial crises: the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. These crises had a significant impact on the nation's macro-economic indicators. Furthermore, they had a profound influence on container traffic in container ports in Busan, which is the largest port in South Korea in terms of TEUs handled. However, the impact of the Asian financial crisis on container throughput is not clear. In this study, we assume that the two financial crises are independent and different, and then analyze how each of them impacted container throughput in Busan ports. To perform this analysis, we use an intervention model that is a special type of ARIMA model with input series. Intervention models can be used to model and forecast a response series and to analyze the impact of an intervention or event on the series. This study focuses on the latter case, and our results show that the impacts of the financial crises vary considerably.
Abraham, B.(1980), "Intervention Analysis and Multiple Time Series," Biometrika, 67(1), 73-78.
Atkins, M. S.(1979), "A Case Study on the Use of Intervention Analysis Applied to Traffic Accidents," The Journal of the Operational Research Society, 30(7), 651-659.
Bhattacharyya, M. N. and Layton, A. P.(1979), "Effectiveness of Seat Belt Legislation on the Queensland Road Toll-An Australian Case Study in Intervention Analysis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(367), 596-603.
Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins, G. M.(1970), Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Holden-Day: San Francisco.
Box, G. E. P. and Tiao, G. C.(1975), "Intervention Analysis with Applications to Economic and Environmental Problems," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 70(349), 70-79.
Button, K.(1993), Transport economics, Edward Elgar: Cheltenham.
Callaghan, R. C., Sanches, M., Gatley, J. M., Liu, L. M. and Cunningham, J. K.(2014), "Hazardous birthday drinking among young people: population-based impacts on emergency department and in-patient hospital admissions," Addiction, 109(10), 1667-1675.
Friedman, M. and Schwariz, A.(1963), A Monetary History of the United States, Princeton University Press: Princeton.
Goh, B. H.(2005), "The dynamic effects of the Asian financial crisis on construction demand and tender price levels in Singapore," Building and Environment, 40(2), 267-276.
Goh, C. and Law, R.(2002), "Modeling and forecasting tourism demand for arrivals with stochastic nonstationary seasonality and intervention," Tourism Management, 23(5), 499-510.
Izenman, A. J. and Zabell, S. L.(1981), "Babies and the blackout: The genesis of a misconception," Social Science Research, 10(3), 282-299.
Kou, Y., Liu, L. and Tian, X.(2011), "The Impact of the Financial Tsunami on Hong Kong Port," The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, 27(2), 259-278.
Lee, H. and Rhee, C.(2012), "Lessons from the 1997 and the 2008 Crises in the Republic of Korea," Asian Economic Policy Review, 7(1), 47-64.
McDowall, D., McCleary, R., Meidinger, E. E. and Hay, R. A. Jr.(1980), Interrupted Time Series Analysis (Sage University Paper Series: Quantitative Applications in the SocialSciences, J. L. Sullivan, Ed.), Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.
Roubini, N. and Mihm, S.(2010), Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance, The penguin Press: New York.
Zheng, T.(2014), "What caused the decrease in RevPAR during the recession?: An ARIMA with intervention analysis of room supply and market demand," International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 26(8), 1225-1242.