[논문]SSP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 농업용 저수지 홍수조절능력 분석

김지혜; 곽지혜; 황순호; 전상민; 이성학; 이재남; 강문성

doi:10.5389/ksae.2021.63.5.049

[국내논문] SSP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 농업용 저수지 홍수조절능력 분석
Analysis of Flood Control Capacity of Agricultural Reservoir Based on SSP Climate Change Scenario 원문보기

한국농공학회논문집 = Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, v.63 no.5, 2021년, pp.49 - 62

김지혜 (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) , 곽지혜 (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) , 황순호 (Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) , 전상민 (Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) , 이성학 (Convergence Center for Watershed Management, Integrated Watershed Management Institute) , 이재남 (Water Resources & Environment Research Group, Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation) , 강문성 (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Institutes of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University)

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

The objective of this study was to evaluate the flood control capacity of the agricultural reservoir based on state-of-the-art climate change scenario - SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). 18 agricultural reservoirs were selected as the study sites, and future rainfall data based on SSP scenario provided by CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6) was applied to analyze the impact of climate change. The frequency analysis module, the rainfall-runoff module, the reservoir operation module, and their linkage system were built and applied to simulate probable rainfall, maximum inflow, maximum outflow, and maximum water level of the reservoirs. And the maximum values were compared with the design values, such as design flood of reservoirs, design flood of direct downstream, and top of dam elevation, respectively. According to whether or not the maximum values exceed each design value, cases were divided into eight categories; I-O-H, I-O, I-H, I, O-H, O, H, X. Probable rainfall (200-yr frequency, 12-h duration) for observed data (1973~2020) was a maximum of 445.2 mm and increased to 619.1~1,359.7 mm in the future (2011~2100). For the present, 61.1% of the reservoirs corresponded to I-O, which means the reservoirs have sufficient capacity to discharge large inflow; however, there is a risk of overflowing downstream due to excessive outflow. For the future, six reservoirs (Idong, Baekgok, Yedang, Tapjung, Naju, Jangsung) were changed from I-O to I-O-H, which means inflow increases beyond the discharge capacity due to climate change, and there is a risk of collapse due to dam overflow.

주제어

표/그림 (11)

표 Fig. 1 Study flow diagram
그림 Fig. 2 Location map of the study sites
표 Table 1 Reservoir and watershed data
표 Table 2 Five illustrative scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR 6) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Riahi, 2017; IPCC, 2021)
표 Table 3 Evaluation of reproducibility of CMIP6 GCMs for Korean climate
그림 Fig. 3 Derivation of probable rainfall intensity formula using 3-hour rainfall data from CMIP6 GCMs (station: Sokcho, period: 2085s)
표 Table 4 Evaluation criteria for flood control capacity of the reservoir using the design values
그림 Fig. 4 Probable rainfall for 12-h duration based on the observed and CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 data (AC: ACCESS-CM2, CE: CNRM-ESM2-1, IP: IPSL-CM6A-LR, MP: MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MR: MRI-ESM2-0)
표 Table 5 Simulation result of the maximum inflow (I_max ), maximum outflow (O_max ), and maximum water level (H_max) and the design values
표 Table 5 Simulation result of the maximum inflow (I_max ), maximum outflow (O_max ), and maximum water level (H_max) and the design values (continued)
그림 Fig. 5 Comparison between maximum inflow (I_max), maximum outflow (O_max), and maximum water level (H_max) and the design values (ΔO_max = (O_max - O_design)×100(%), ΔH_max = (H_max - H_design)×100(%))

참고문헌 (29)

Cho, J. P., 2013. Impact assessment of climate change for agricultural reservoirs considering uncertainty. Research Report 2013-05. APEC Climate Center (in Korean).
Garijo, C., and L. Mediero, 2018. Influence of climate change on flood magnitude and seasonality in the Arga River catchment in Spain. Acta Geophysica 66(4): 769-790. doi:10.1007/s11600-018-0143-0.

상세보기
Hwang, S., J. Cho, and K. S. Yoon, 2018. Assessing the skills of CMIP5 GCMs in reproducing spatial climatology of precipitation over the coastal area in East Asia. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 51(8): 629-642 (in Korean). doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.8.629.

원문보기 상세보기
Hwang, S. H., 2012. Impacts of reservoir dam heightening on downstream flood alleviation. Master diss., Seoul National University (in Korean).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2021. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
Jun, S. M., M. S. Kang, I. Song, S. H. Hwang, K. Kim, and J. Park, 2013. Effects of agricultural reservoir rehabilitation on their flood control capacities. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 55(6): 57-68 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2013.55.6.057.

원문보기 상세보기
Jun, S. M., S. Hwang, J. Kim, J. Kwak, K. Kim, H. J. Lee, and M. S. Kang, 2020. Future inundation risk evaluation of farmland in the Moohan stream watershed based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs. Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 62(6): 131-142 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2020.62.6.131.

원문보기 상세보기
Jung, I., H. I. Eum, E. J. Lee, J. Park, and J. Cho, 2018. Development of representative GCMs selection technique for uncertainty in climate change scenario. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 60(5): 149-162 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2018.60.5.149.

원문보기 상세보기
Kim, J., J. Park, J. H. Song, S. M. Jun, and M. S. Kang, 2016. Design flood estimation in the Hwangguji river watershed under climate and land use changes scenario. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 58(1): 39-51 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2016.58.1.039.

원문보기 상세보기
Kim, J. H., J. H. Gwak, S. M. Jeon, S. H. Lee, J. N. Lee, and M. S. Kang, 2021. Development of linkage methods for flood and inundation simulation of agricultural hydraulic structures. Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 63(2): 44-56 (in Korean).
Korea Rural Community Corporation, 2020. Implementation of flood capacity expansion project in small and medium-sized reservoirs (Press Release). Released 19 Jan. 2020 (in Korean).
Korea Water Resources Association and Korea River Association, 2019. Explanation of national river design criteria (in Korean).
Kwak, J., J. Kim, S. M. Jun, S. Hwang, S. Lee, J. N. Lee, and M. S. Kang, 2020. Assessment of future flood according to climate change, rainfall distribution and CN. Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 62(6): 85-95 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2020.62.6.085.

원문보기 상세보기
Ministry of Construction and Transportation, 2004. Renewable report of PMP map in Korea (in Korean).
Ministry of Environment, 2019. Standard guidelines for flood estimation (in Korean).
Ministry of Environment, 2020. Master plan of national water management I (in Korean).
Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, 2009. Analysis of the trend of extreme flood events (in Korean).
Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, 2011. Improvement and supplement of probability rainfall in South Korea (in Korean).
Miotto, F., P. Claps, F. Laio, and D. Poggi, 2007. An analytical index for flood attenuation due to reservoirs. In 32nd Congress of IAHR, Venice, Italy.
Montaldo, N., M. Mancini, and R. Rosso, 2004. Flood hydrograph attenuation induced by a reservoir system: analysis with a distributed rainfall-runoff model. Hydrological processes 18(3): 545-563. doi:10.1002/hyp.1337.

상세보기
O'Neill, B. C., C. Tebaldi, D. P. V. Vuuren, V. Eyring, P. Friedlingstein, G. Hurtt, and B. M. Sanderson, 2016. The scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development 9(9): 3461-3482. doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016.

상세보기
Park, J., 2016. Reliability-based flood risk assessment methodology and its application to climate change for agricultural reservoirs. Ph.D. diss., Seoul National University (in Korean).
Riahi, K., D. P. van Vuuren, E. Kriegler, J. Edmonds, B. C. O'neill, S. Fujimori, and M. Tavoni, 2017. The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global environmental change 42: 153-168. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.

상세보기
Shim, M. P., O. I. Kwon, and K. T. Kim, 1998. Flood control effects of Hwacheon dam in connection with Peace dam 1; A review of flood control capacity of Hwacheon dam. Journal of The Korean Society of Civil Engineers 18(2-2): 163-172 (in Korean).
Shrestha, S., and W. Lohpaisankrit, 2017. Flood hazard assessment under climate change scenarios in the Yang River Basin, Thailand. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment 6(2): 285-298. doi:10.1016/j.ijsbe.2016.09.006.

상세보기
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1998. HEC-5 simulation of flood control and conservation systems - User's manual, version 8.0.
Volpi, E., M. Di Lazzaro, M. Bertola, A. Viglione, and A. Fiori, 2018. Reservoir effects on flood peak discharge at the catchment scale. Water Resources Research 54(11): 9623-9636. doi:10.1029/2018WR023866.

상세보기
Zhang, X., L. Alexander, G. C. Hegerl, P. Jones, A. K. Tank, T. C. Peterson, B. Trewin, and F. W. Zwiers, 2011. Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2(6): 851-870. doi:10.1002/wcc.147.

상세보기

저자의 다른 논문 :

표제어: PCR

동의어: Packet Collision Rate

용어 설명 출처 목록 (6)

용어 설명: PCR은 세균 특이성이 있는 primer를 이용하여 적은 수의 세균이 있을지라도 쉽게 검출할 수 있는 유용한 방법이며, 이를 이용하여 구강 내 치면세균막이나 타액에서 직접 세균을 검출할 수 있게 되었다[8].

내보내기 구분	파일저장 인쇄 메일전송
구성항목	기본정보 상세정보 관리번호, 논문명, 저널/프로시딩명, 저자 , 발행년, 권, 호, 시작페이지, 끝페이지, 발행기관 관리번호, 논문명, 대등논문명, 저자 , 저널/프로시딩명, 발행기관, 발행년, 발행언어, 권, 호, 시작페이지, 끝페이지, ISBN, ISSN, 주제분야, 키워드, 초록(한글), 초록(영문), 저자(소속기관)
저장형식	Text(ASCII format) Excel format RefWorks Direct Export RIS format (for Reference Manager, ProCite, EndNote), Scholar's Aids, Mendeley
메일정보	받는사람 (필수) @ 보내는사람 (선택) @ 제목 내용 KISTI 검색결과 이메일 서비스
안내	총 건의 자료가 검색되었습니다. 다운받으실 자료의 인덱스를 입력하세요. (1-10,000) 검색결과의 순서대로 최대 10,000건 까지 다운로드가 가능합니다. 데이타가 많을 경우 속도가 느려질 수 있습니다.(최대 2~3분 소요) 다운로드 파일은 UTF-8 형태로 저장됩니다. 파일의 내용이 제대로 보이지 않을실 때는 웹브라우저 상단의 보기 -> 인코딩 -> 자동선택 여부를 확인하십시오. ~ Text(ASCII format) Excel format

연합인증