[논문]기후변화에 따른 작물의 수량 예측을 위한 시스템 요구도 분석

김준환; 이충근; 김현애; 이변우; 김광수

doi:10.5532/kjafm.2015.17.1.1

기후변화에 따른 작물의 수량 예측을 위한 시스템 요구도 분석
Requirement Analysis of a System to Predict Crop Yield under Climate Change 원문보기

한국농림기상학회지 = Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, v.17 no.1, 2015년, pp.1 - 14

김준환 (농촌진흥청 국립식량과학원 답작과) , 이충근 (농촌진흥청 국립식량과학원 기획조정과) , 김현애 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 식물생산과학부) , 이변우 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 식물생산과학부) , 김광수 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 식물생산과학부)

초록
AI-Helper

온실가스 증가로 인한 기후변화는 농업 생태계에 다양한 경로로 영향을 미쳐 작물 생산에 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 또한, 농업 생태계는 생물, 기후, 토양 및 경제 환경이 서로 복잡하게 연결되어 있어 개별 분야에 초점을 맞춘 적응 대책들은 농업 부문 내 다른 영역에 의도하지 않은 파급 효과를 초래할 수 있다. 기후변화 조건에서 복잡한 농업 생태계의 상호작용을 고려하면서 최적의 작물 생산성을 유지하기 위해 개별분야별 모델을 연계한 통합 예측 시스템 구축이 요구된다. 이러한 통합시스템을 구축하기 위해서는 단계적 접근이 필요하다. 국내에서 사용되고 있는 모델들은 통합시스템에 적합하도록 설계된 것이 아니기 때문에, 이를 위한 모델의 재개발이 필요하다. 농업생태계 감시를 위한 수퍼사이트와 위성사이트의 구축을 통해 장기간 작물 생육 자료를 확보하고 이를 개별 분야 모델의 개선에 활용할 수 있다. 모델 대상의 추상화와 상속과정을 통해 보다 유연한 형태의 통합 모델의 모듈 개발이 가능할 것이다. 마지막으로, 농업분야는 사회경제적인 요인에 지대한 영향을 받기 때문에, 농업생산과 경제분야가 연계될 수 있는 통합 시스템 구축이 바람직 할 것 이다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

Climate change caused by elevated greenhouse gases would affect crop production through different pathways in agricultural ecosystems. Because an agricultural ecosystem has complex interactions between societal and economical environment as well as organisms, climate, and soil, adaptation measures in response to climate change on a specific sector could cause undesirable impacts on other sectors inadvertently. An integrated system, which links individual models for components of agricultural ecosystems, would allow to take into account complex interactions existing in a given agricultural ecosystem under climate change and to derive proper adaptation measures in order to improve crop productivity. Most of models for agricultural ecosystems have been used in a separate sector, e.g., prediction of water resources or crop growth. Few of those models have been desiged to be connected to other models as a module of an integrated system. Threfore, it would be crucial to redesign and to refine individual models that have been used for simulation of individual sectors. To improve models for each sector in terms of accuracy and algorithm, it would also be needed to obtain crop growth data through construction of super-sites and satellite sites for long-term monitoring of agricultural ecosystems. It would be advantageous to design a model in a sector from abstraction and inheritance of a simple model, which would facilitate development of modules compatible to the integrated prediction system. Because agricultural production is influenced by social and economical sectors considerably, construction of an integreated system that simulates agricultural production as well as economical activities including trade and demand is merited for prediction of crop production under climate change.

주제어

질의응답

핵심어	질문	논문에서 추출한 답변
	오존 농도가 증가가 작물의 생산성에 영향을 줄수 있다는 예시는 무엇인가?	또한, 온실가스 증가와 함께 오존 농도가 증가하여 작물의 생산성을 감소시킬 수있다(IPCC 2014). 예를 들어, Ainsworth(2008)는 대기중 오존 농도가 62ppb일 때 벼의 생산량이 14% 감소하였다고 보고하였다.
	미래의 작물 생산성 변화를 예측하기 위해 무엇을 고려되어 왔는가?	미래의 작물 생산성 변화를 예측하기 위해 온실가스농도 및 기온의 변화뿐 만 아니라 기후변화 적응을 위한 작물 재배 관리까지 고려되어 왔다(Lobell et al., 2008; Smit and Skinner, 2002).
	온실가스 증가는 무엇에 영향을 미치는가?	CO2, N2O, 및 CH4를 포함하는 온실가스 증가로 인한 기후변화는 생물리학적인 요인에 의해 작물 생산에 영향을 미칠 수 있다(Tubiello et al. 2002).

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