[논문]아프리카 국가들의 경제성장률 변동성에 기후변화, 송금 및 농업 원조가 미치는 영향 분석

유수빈; 김태윤

doi:10.15266/kerea.2016.25.4.471

[국내논문] 아프리카 국가들의 경제성장률 변동성에 기후변화, 송금 및 농업 원조가 미치는 영향 분석
Can Agricultural Aid and Remittances Alleviate Macroeconomic Volatility in Response to Climate Change Shocks? 원문보기

자원·환경경제연구 = Environmental and resource economics review, v.25 no.4, 2016년, pp.471 - 494

유수빈 (서울대 국제농업기술대학원) , 김태윤 (서울대 국제농업기술대학원)

초록
AI-Helper

본 연구는 1996년부터 2013년의 경제성장률의 변동성 데이터를 이용하여 아프리카 28개국의 경제적 안정성에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석한 것이다. 28개 아프리카 국가의 1996년 부터 2013년의 연도별 자료를 3년씩 따로 분류하여 총 6개의 시계열 자료를 구축하고 이를 토대로 패널 분석을 수행하였다. 송금 및 농업원조와 경제성장률의 변동성 간의 내생성 문제를 해결하기 위하여 system-GMM (system-Generalized Method of Moments)을 이용하였다. 분석결과 기후변화를 대표하는 요인 중 자연재해와 온도의 변동성만이 경제 안정성을 악화시키는 요인으로 나타났다. 반면 송금과 농업원조자금은 아프리카 국가들의 경제를 안정시키는 효과를 보이며, 특히 송금의 경우 자연재해 발생에 따른 경제 변동성을 감소시키는 보험의 역할을 하는 것으로 판단된다.

Abstract ▼ AI-Helper

This study investigates the effect of remittance and agricultural aid inflows on GDP growth rate volatility in response to climate change shocks in twenty-eight African countries by using system generalized method of moments from 1996 to 2013 with three years grouped data. The climate change shocks are indicated by four variables; natural disasters, rainfall variability, fluctuation in temperature and the weighted anomaly standardized precipitation (WASP) index. Consequently, natural disasters and temperature variability have a significant effect on GDP volatility, while rainfall variability and WASP index have no adverse consequence on stabilization of the economy. On the other hand, in general, remittances and agricultural aid are helpful to stabilize the economy and especially remittances inflows can play a crucial role as insurance when natural disasters occur.

Keyword

AI 본문요약
AI-Helper

* AI 자동 식별 결과로 적합하지 않은 문장이 있을 수 있으니, 이용에 유의하시기 바랍니다.

문제 정의

The SDGs threw light on the importance of tackling climate change so as to acquire sustainable development in developing countries. Therefore, this paper aims to evaluate how African nations can achieve sustainable development goals by stabilizing economic growth in response to climate change shocks.
, 2007). Therefore, this study focuses on a particular group of African countries in order to estimate which climate indicators can have the most adverse impact on stabilization of the economy. Thus, this study assesses the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate volatility and four given climate variables: natural disasters, fluctuation in precipitation, temperature variability, and the country average weighted anomaly standardized precipitation index (WASP).
Also, recently, one of IMF working papers found that remittances have considerable power to alleviate the shock from GDP fluctuation in 27 African countries (Jidoud, 2015). Therefore, this study would evaluate the impact of remittances on economic stabilization in response to climate change shocks in a particular group of African countries.
The aim of this study is to estimate not only the impacts of agricultural aid and remittances to stabilize the economy but also the destabilization effect of climate variables including natural disasters, WASP, and fluctuation in precipitation and temperature on the economy in the given twenty-eight African countries. Through this analysis, this paper could help African nations to plan a national strategy in order to achieve economic stabilization and provide solutions to absorb the shocks caused by environmental problems.
The aim of this study is to estimate not only the impacts of agricultural aid and remittances to stabilize the economy but also the destabilization effect of climate variables including natural disasters, WASP, and fluctuation in precipitation and temperature on the economy in the given twenty-eight African countries. Through this analysis, this paper could help African nations to plan a national strategy in order to achieve economic stabilization and provide solutions to absorb the shocks caused by environmental problems.

제안 방법

Therefore, this study focuses on a particular group of African countries in order to estimate which climate indicators can have the most adverse impact on stabilization of the economy. Thus, this study assesses the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate volatility and four given climate variables: natural disasters, fluctuation in precipitation, temperature variability, and the country average weighted anomaly standardized precipitation index (WASP).
The major explanatory variables are rainfall variability, temperature variability, WASP-1 and natural disaster, representing climate change shocks for each African country. This study calculates rainfall variability captured through monthly precipitation data from multiple stations.
Also, since remittances or other variables cannot limit and divide their power to stabilize the economy in response to natural disasters, the number of total affected people is chosen regardless of the types of disasters in this study (Ebeke and Combes, 2013). Thus, this paper calculates the mean of total affected people every three years, which are then divided by the entire population at an initial value of each sub-period for determining the share of affected people over the population.
According to Sargan test, the null hypothesis was not rejected in all of the results, which means that all the models are satisfied with moment conditions and there is no over-identification problem. Moreover, in all the results from the test for zero autocorrelation in the first-differenced error, the null-hypothesis of first-order correlation was rejected, and it failed to reject that of the second-order serial correlation. These indicate that the error term is uncorrelated with the time series.
Through the Sargan test, the null hypothesis was not rejected in all the results, which means that all the models are satisfied with moment conditions and there is no over-identification problem. Moreover, in all the results from the test for zero autocorrelation in first-differenced error, the null-hypothesis of first-order correlation was rejected, and it failed to reject that of second-order serial correlation. These indicate that the error term is uncorrelated with time series.
Nevertheless, this study has limitations. First, this study provides statistical analysis at a superficial level due to the absence of data for estimating the extended period. On the other hand, these findings would be valuable for developing countries as they currently cope with natural disasters and suffer from economic instability, which has a potential to bring about underdevelopment.
This paper analyzes climate factors that most severely affect macroeconomic volatility, and if remittances and agricultural aid are available or not to stabilize output respectively. growth rate in the selected twenty-eight African countries by using the system-GMM estimator.

이론/모형

Moreover, this study uses the WASP-1 index for a climate variable, which can show us precipitation abnormalities (Lyon, 2005). The WASP-1 index is not the same as rainfall variability because this index is standardized monthly from the long-term mean of precipitation and provides more detailed information to people on the potentiality of severe drought (WASP-1; below -1) in each country according to equation (4).
Also, other factors could be linked to the dependent variable and independent variables. Then, this study uses control variables that have been used in previous studies (Fatas and Mihov, 2003; Bugamelli and Paterno, 2011; Ebeke and Combes, 2013). However, inserting dummy variables of conflict is a point of distinction with other previous studies.
, 2012). Hence, this study utilizes the estimator of the system-generalized method of moments (system-GMM) with instruments (i.e. lagged difference and levels of explanatory variables) (Bludell and Bond, 1998), instead of Ordinary Least Square (OLS).
This paper analyzes climate factors that most severely affect macroeconomic volatility, and if remittances and agricultural aid are available or not to stabilize output respectively. growth rate in the selected twenty-eight African countries by using the system-GMM estimator. From the study results, natural disasters have a significant effect on economic destabilization rather than other climate variables during the given sub-period in these particular African countries.

성능/효과

In the equation, this study assumes that γ1 > 0, τ1 > 0, δ1 > 0, and Φ1 > 0 as climate variables might have a negative impact on economic stabilization in the twenty-eight African countries.

참고문헌 (26)

Aizenman, J. and B. Pinto., (Eds.), "Managing economic volatility and crises: A practitioner's guide", United Kingdom, Cambridge University Press (Virtual Publishing), 2006.
Barrios, S., L., Bertinelli, and E, Strobl., "Trends in rainfall and economic growth in Africa: A neglected cause of the African growth tragedy", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 92, No. 2, 2010, pp. 350-366.

상세보기
Bugamelli, M., and F, Paterno., "Output growth volatility and remittances", Economica, Vol. 78, No. 311, 2011, pp. 480-500.

상세보기
Busby, J. W., T. G. Smith, K. L. White, and S. M. Strange, "Locating climate insecurity: where are the most vulnerable places in Africa?", In Climate change, human security and violent conflict, 2012, pp. 463-511.
Brown, O., A. Hammill, and R. McLeman, "Climate change as the 'new'security threat: implications for Africa", International Affairs, Vol. 83, No. 6, 2007, pp. 1141-1154.

상세보기
Brown, C., R. Meeks, K. Hunu, and W. Yu, "Hydroclimate risk to economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa", Climatic Change, Vol. 106, No. 4, 2011, pp. 621-647.

상세보기
Chinn, M. D. and Ito, H., "A new measure of financial openness", Journal of comparative policy analysis, Vol. 10, No. 3, 2008, pp. 309-322.

상세보기
Cordella, T. and G. Dell'Ariccia, "Budget support versus project aid: a theoretical appraisal*", The Economic Journal, Vol. 117, No. 523, 2007, pp. 1260-1279.

상세보기
David, A., "How do international financial flows to developing countries respond to natural disasters?", IMF Working Papers, No. 10/166, International Monetary Fund, 2010.
Dell, M., B. F. Jones, and B. A. Olken, "Temperature shocks and economic growth: Evidence from the last half century", American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 4, No. 3, 2012, pp. 66-95.

상세보기
Ebeke, C. and J. L. Combes, "Do remittances dampen the effect of natural disasters on output growth volatility in developing countries?", Applied Economics, Vol. 45. No. 16, 2013, pp. 2241-2254.

상세보기
Fatas, A. and I. Mihov, "The case for restricting fiscal policy discretion", Quarterly Journal Of Economics, Vol. 118, No. 4, 2003, pp. 1419-1447.

상세보기
Gleditsch, N. P., P. Wallensteen, M. Eriksson, Sollenberg, and H. Strand, "Armed conflict 1946-2001: A new dataset", Journal of peace research, Vol. 39, No. 5, 2002, pp. 615-637.

상세보기
Jidoud, A., "Remittances and macroeconomic volatility in african countries", IMF working paper No. WP/15/49, IMF, 2015.
Lane, P. R. and G. M. Milesi-Ferretti, "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004", Journal of International Economics, Vol. 73, No. 2, 2007, pp. 223-250.

상세보기
Loayza, N. V., R. Ranciere, L. Serven, and J. Ventura, "Macroeconomic volatility and welfare in developing countries: An introduction", The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 21, No. 3, 2007, pp. 343-357.

상세보기
Lucas, R. E., "On the mechanics of economic development", Journal of monetary economics, Vol. 22, No. 1, 1988, pp. 3-42.

상세보기
Lyon, B. and A. G. Barnston, "ENSO and the spatial extent of interannual precipitation extremes in tropical land areas", Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, No. 23, 2005, pp. 5095-5109.

상세보기
Mavrotas, G., "Aid and growth in India: some evidence from disaggregated aid data", South Asia Economic Journal, Vol. 3, No. 1, 2002, pp. 19-48.

상세보기
Mavrotas, G., "Aid heterogeneity: looking at aid effectiveness from a different angle", Journal of International Development, Vol. 17, No. 8, 2005, pp. 1019-1036.

상세보기
Mohapatra, S., G. Joseph. and D. Ratha, "Remittances and natural disasters: ex-post response and contribution to ex-ante preparedness", Policy Research Working Paper No. 4972, World Bank, 2009.
Raddatz, C., "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?", Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 84, No. 1, 2007, pp. 155-187.

상세보기
Stewart, F., F. P. Humphreys, and N. Lea, "Civil conflict in developing countries over the last quarter of a century: an empirical overview of economic and social consequences", Oxford Development Studies, Vol. 25, No. 1, 1997, pp. 11-41.

상세보기
Themner, L. and P. Wallensteen, "Armed Conflicts, 1946-2012", Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 50, No. 4, 2013, pp. 509-521.

상세보기
World Bank, "Migration and remittance fact book", Retrieved from World Bank website: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTLAC/Resources/Factbook2011-Ebook.pdf, 2011.
Yang D. and H. Choi., "Are remittances insurance? evidence from rainfall shocks in the philippines", World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 21, No. 2, 2007, pp. 219-248.

상세보기

저자의 다른 논문 :

활용도 분석정보

상세보기

다운로드

내보내기

활용도 Top5 논문

해당 논문의 주제분야에서 활용도가 높은 상위 5개 콘텐츠를 보여줍니다.
더보기 버튼을 클릭하시면 더 많은 관련자료를 살펴볼 수 있습니다.

표제어: PCR

동의어: Packet Collision Rate

용어 설명 출처 목록 (6)

용어 설명: PCR은 세균 특이성이 있는 primer를 이용하여 적은 수의 세균이 있을지라도 쉽게 검출할 수 있는 유용한 방법이며, 이를 이용하여 구강 내 치면세균막이나 타액에서 직접 세균을 검출할 수 있게 되었다[8].

내보내기 구분	파일저장 인쇄 메일전송
구성항목	기본정보 상세정보 관리번호, 논문명, 저널/프로시딩명, 저자 , 발행년, 권, 호, 시작페이지, 끝페이지, 발행기관 관리번호, 논문명, 대등논문명, 저자 , 저널/프로시딩명, 발행기관, 발행년, 발행언어, 권, 호, 시작페이지, 끝페이지, ISBN, ISSN, 주제분야, 키워드, 초록(한글), 초록(영문), 저자(소속기관)
저장형식	Text(ASCII format) Excel format RefWorks Direct Export RIS format (for Reference Manager, ProCite, EndNote), Scholar's Aids, Mendeley
메일정보	받는사람 (필수) @ 보내는사람 (선택) @ 제목 내용 KISTI 검색결과 이메일 서비스
안내	총 건의 자료가 검색되었습니다. 다운받으실 자료의 인덱스를 입력하세요. (1-10,000) 검색결과의 순서대로 최대 10,000건 까지 다운로드가 가능합니다. 데이타가 많을 경우 속도가 느려질 수 있습니다.(최대 2~3분 소요) 다운로드 파일은 UTF-8 형태로 저장됩니다. 파일의 내용이 제대로 보이지 않을실 때는 웹브라우저 상단의 보기 -> 인코딩 -> 자동선택 여부를 확인하십시오. ~ Text(ASCII format) Excel format

연합인증